Russian New-Build Market Shows Signs of Revival

The Russian new-build real estate market is demonstrating a strong recovery, marking a potential turning point after a period of significant decline. Following the summer 2024 cancellation of the mass preferential mortgage program, the market entered a deep crisis. However, recent data indicates a reversal of this trend. By the end of summer 2025, demand for new apartments in Russia's major cities with populations over one million had surged by 34% compared to the same period in the previous year.

This resurgence is quantified by a substantial number of transactions, totaling 29,000 deals closed. This data points to a renewed buyer interest and a possible stabilization of the sector. The recovery suggests that the market is adapting to the post-subsidy environment, with underlying demand proving resilient. The growth in a sector that had been described as being in a serious crisis just a year prior is a notable development for the country's economic landscape.

The new-build real estate sector in Russia is showing clear signs of a renaissance. The market had been grappling with a severe downturn after the termination of the large-scale preferential mortgage program in the summer of 2024. This program had been a major driver of demand, and its cancellation led to a significant market cool-down. However, recent indicators suggest the market is now finding a new equilibrium and experiencing a powerful upswing.

According to available data, the end of summer 2025 brought a significant shift. The 34% year-over-year increase in demand across million-plus cities is a key indicator of this change. The volume of transactions, reaching 29,000, further solidifies the assessment that the market is entering a new, more positive phase. This growth is not merely a minor fluctuation but a substantial recovery from the crisis conditions that prevailed just months earlier.

The revival of the new-build market is supported by concrete metrics that highlight the scale of the recent upswing. The primary data points originate from market analysis conducted by a major Russian technology company specializing in real estate services. These figures provide a clear snapshot of the market's trajectory at the close of the summer season.

The key statistics defining this recovery period include:

• A 34% annual increase in demand for new housing.
• A total of 29,000 transactions concluded in the million-plus cities.
• The recovery is observed specifically in the new-build segment of the housing market.
• The growth is measured year-over-year, comparing late summer 2025 to the same period in 2024.

These indicators collectively paint a picture of a market that is not only stabilizing but actively growing, suggesting a renewed confidence among buyers and developers alike.

The observed recovery is particularly pronounced in Russia's largest urban centers. The data specifically focuses on cities with a population of one million or more, which are typically the most active and influential real estate markets in the country. These metropolitan areas are often the first to reflect broader economic trends and shifts in consumer sentiment.

Focusing on these key locations provides a reliable benchmark for the health of the national housing market. The significant demand growth in these competitive and high-stakes environments suggests that the recovery is robust. The 29,000 deals made in these cities represent a substantial volume of capital investment and signal a return of activity to a sector that had been largely stagnant. This geographic concentration of growth highlights where the revival is most acutely felt.

The Russian new-build real estate market has navigated a challenging period following the end of state-supported mortgage lending. The data from the end of summer 2025, however, paints a compelling picture of a market in recovery. The 34% surge in demand and the completion of 29,000 transactions in major cities are strong indicators that the sector is experiencing a significant revival. This turnaround from a 'serious crisis' to a 'renaissance' in just over a year demonstrates the market's resilience and adaptability. While the long-term sustainability of this growth remains to be seen, the current trend is undeniably positive and marks a crucial development for Russia's real estate and economic outlook.