EU Accelerates Russian LNG Phase-Out

The European Union has decided to end imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) on an accelerated timeline. Previously planned schedules have been revised to cut long-term contracts by the end of 2026. Furthermore, the EU will prohibit supplies under short-term contracts signed before June 17, 2025, starting on April 25, 2026.

Currently, Russian LNG represents a significant portion of the European energy mix, accounting for 15 percent of total imports. The financial impact is substantial, with monthly costs estimated between €500 million and €700 million. Despite the impending ban, the Yamal LNG facility, operated by NOVATEK, remains the second-largest supplier to the EU, surpassed only by the United States.

To fill the supply gap, EU nations are preparing to source LNG primarily from the United States and countries in the Middle East. This shift is expected to be relatively smooth, as the global market is projected to see increased saturation from new LNG projects starting in mid-2026. The largest consumers of Russian LNG within the bloc include France, Belgium, Spain, the Netherlands, and Italy.

The European Union has finalized plans to sever ties with Russian liquefied natural gas suppliers much faster than originally anticipated. The decision involves breaking long-term agreements with the former largest supplier by the conclusion of 2026. This move marks a significant shift in European energy policy, aiming to reduce reliance on Russian energy exports.

In addition to the long-term contract cancellations, the EU is targeting short-term agreements. Supplies secured under contracts finalized before June 17, 2025, will be banned effective April 25, 2026. This dual approach ensures that both immediate and future imports from Russia are curtailed within a tight timeframe.

Despite the aggressive move to ban imports, Russian LNG currently plays a notable role in the European energy sector. Approximately 15 percent of the EU's total LNG import volume originates from Russia. This dependency translates into significant monthly expenditures for the bloc, estimated to be between €500 million and €700 million.

The Yamal LNG project, a major facility owned by Russian company NOVATEK, continues to be a key player in the region's supply chain. It currently holds the position of the second-largest supplier of LNG to the European Union, ranking just behind the United States.

European nations are actively preparing to replace the volumes previously supplied by Russia. The primary alternatives identified are exports from the United States and various nations within the Middle East. The transition is viewed as potentially relatively painless due to upcoming changes in the global energy market.

Starting from the middle of next year, the global market is expected to be increasingly saturated with new LNG projects coming online. This influx of supply should provide the necessary capacity for the EU to meet its energy needs without Russian imports. Consequently, the continent's largest buyers of Russian LNG—specifically France, Belgium, Spain, the Netherlands, and Italy—will need to adjust their supply chains accordingly.