Ibovespa and Dollar Start 2026 with Positive Momentum

The first trading session of 2026 began with a cautiously optimistic climate for investors in Brazil. The Ibovespa is expected to open higher, while the dollar shows a slight increase against the real. This movement reflects a global market that remains cautious but shows signs of relief.

The dollar arrived in 2026 after a difficult year, recording its worst annual performance in nearly a decade with a depreciation exceeding 10% in 2025. Factors weighing on the currency included expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and concerns over the US public deficit. Conversely, the Brazilian stock exchange closed 2025 with a gain of over 30%, the highest since 2016.

The outlook for 2026 is driven by commodity-linked stocks, supported by China's economic growth targets. Meanwhile, global markets such as those in Europe and Asia also started the year with gains, and gold continued its historic rally.

The first trading day of 2026 started with a positive outlook for Brazilian investors. The expectation is for the Ibovespa to rise at the opening, while the dollar is set to begin the year with a slight increase against the real. This movement reflects a global market that is still cautious but showing specific signs of relief.

In the final session of 2025, the Ibovespa rose 0.40%, closing at 161,125 points. Over the course of the previous year, the index gained over 30%, marking the best annual performance since 2016. This growth occurred despite interest rates being at their highest level in the last 20 years.

For the first trading day of 2026, the market expects this positive momentum to continue. The primary impulse comes from stocks linked to commodities, such as mining and steel, which tend to gain strength immediately upon opening.

The dollar enters 2026 following a challenging year. In the last trading session of 2025, the American currency closed with a drop of 1.47%, quoted at R$ 5.4887. This helped consolidate a depreciation of more than 10% accumulated throughout 2025.

This was the dollar's worst annual performance in nearly a decade. Several factors contributed to this decline:

• Expectations of new interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve
• Concerns regarding the high deficit of American public accounts
• The global trade war
• Doubts about the conduct of economic policy by President Donald Trump

Despite the significant drop in 2025, the currency opened the new year with a slight increase, reflecting an external scenario that remains full of uncertainties.

Global markets also began 2026 with gains, although trading volumes remained low due to holidays in markets like Japan and China. In Europe, the mood was more animated, with the pan-European index STOXX 600 rising about 0.6% and the FTSE 100 in London surpassing the symbolic mark of 10,000 points for the first time.

In Asia, Hong Kong stood out, with the Hang Seng index reaching its highest level in about a month and a half, driven by optimism regarding China's artificial intelligence sector. The release of cheaper technologies to develop AI renewed investor interest.

A significant driver for the Brazilian market is the economic outlook in China. The country reaffirmed its goal of growing 5%. To achieve this pace, the Chinese economy needs to maintain high investments, especially in infrastructure and industry, which increases demand for raw materials. Brazil is a major supplier of these inputs, and the maintenance of the Chinese target reinforces the expectation of firm demand for products like iron ore.

Precious metals continued their upward trajectory. Gold rose more than 1% in the first trading session of the year, extending a historic movement: in 2025, the metal had its highest appreciation in 46 years. Silver and platinum also recorded their largest gains in history. This movement reflects a search for protection in the face of dollar weakness, geopolitical tensions, and the expectation of lower interest rates in the US.

Domestically, the Brazilian labor market remains strong, with low unemployment and rising income. This sustains consumption but keeps service inflation pressured, reducing the room for rapid interest rate cuts. Additionally, the fiscal situation remains under watch, as the advancement of the deficit and debt pressures interest rates and limits risk appetite.