Clear-Air Turbulence Set to Triple by 2050

Incidents of severe clear-air turbulence (CAT) are increasing globally due to human-induced climate change, rising 55% since 1979. Research indicates that turbulence levels could triple by 2050, significantly impacting flight routes over East Asia and the North Atlantic.

This rise poses risks to passenger safety and increases operational costs due to aircraft wear and higher fuel consumption. In response, the aviation industry is developing advanced solutions. Companies like Turbulence Solutions are testing mechanical flaps to stabilize aircraft, while researchers are utilizing artificial intelligence to predict chaotic airflow patterns.

Technologies such as Lidar and specialized microphones are also being explored to detect turbulence from a distance. Currently, pilots rely on improved forecasting software and real-time data sharing to navigate these invisible hazards.

Passenger accounts highlight the physical dangers of sudden atmospheric disturbances. One traveler described a scene of chaos following a Singapore Airlines flight over southern Mianmar in 2024, noting "blood on the ceiling" and passengers thrown to the floor. Similarly, a United Airlines flight over the Philippines resulted in a flight attendant being thrown against the ceiling, suffering a concussion and a broken arm.

These incidents are attributed to clear-air turbulence (CAT), which consists of extremely turbulent air invisible to satellites, radar, and the human eye. According to research by Paul Williams, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Reading, CAT has increased by 55% since 1979. The projection is that this turbulence will triple worldwide by the 2050s, with significant impacts on air routes over the East Asia and the North Atlantic.

The consequences extend beyond immediate discomfort. Turbulence causes significant stress on aircraft structures, accelerating wear and tear. When pilots divert courses to avoid these zones, flights are lengthened, leading to increased fuel consumption and higher emissions. This environmental and financial burden is driving the search for mitigation strategies.

To combat the physical effects of turbulence, engineers are developing new hardware. An Austrian company, Turbulence Solutions, has created small flaps that attach to the larger ailerons on aircraft wings. These devices adjust their angle based on pressure measurements to compensate for airflow changes, stabilizing the plane similarly to how birds adjust their feathers. The company claims this technology can reduce felt turbulence by over 80% and is confident it can be adapted for larger commercial jets.

Simultaneously, researchers are turning to artificial intelligence to handle the chaotic nature of airflow. Ricardo Vinuesa, a researcher at the KTH Royal Institute of Technology, suggests that turbulence is a perfect application for AI because it involves finding patterns in high-dimensional data. In recent experiments, Vinuesa and colleagues used deep reinforcement learning to train an AI system controlling synthetic air jets on a simulated wing.

Other technological approaches include:

• NASA researchers testing microphones to detect infrasound frequencies generated by turbulence up to 480 km away.
• A California Institute of Technology and Nvidia team using AI to detect and predict turbulence for drones.
• The use of Lidar technology to create 3D maps of the air surrounding the aircraft, though current models face challenges with size and energy consumption at high altitudes.

While new technologies are in development, current aviation practices rely on advanced forecasting. Before takeoff, pilots consult meteorological bulletins and analyze jet stream maps. They utilize flight planning software and tools like the Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) system, to which Paul Williams contributes.

Forecasting accuracy has improved significantly over the last two decades. Williams notes that roughly 20 years ago, researchers could predict about 60% of turbulence; today, that figure is closer to 75%. However, progress is hindered by the cost of accessing turbulence data measured by aircraft sensors.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) operates the Turbulence Aware system, which anonymizes and shares real-time turbulence data. This system is currently used by airlines such as Air France, EasyJet, and Aer Lingus. For passengers, applications like Turbli offer access to information previously reserved for flight crews, though experts caution that these tools are not always 100% accurate due to unknown exact flight paths.

The increase in clear-air turbulence represents a significant challenge for the aviation industry, driven by the undeniable effects of climate change. As atmospheric instability grows, the financial and safety costs associated with flight operations will likely rise. However, the convergence of advanced manufacturing, artificial intelligence, and new sensor technologies offers a promising path forward. From mechanical flaps that mimic bird flight to AI systems capable of predicting chaotic patterns, the industry is actively seeking solutions to ensure that air travel remains safe and efficient in a changing climate.