Key Facts
- ✓ The volume of new shopping center introductions in Russia is projected to grow by 21% in 2026.
- ✓ Total new retail space is expected to reach 638,000 square meters, which is double the volume of the previous year.
- ✓ The main driver of growth is the shift of development activity to regions where the supply of shopping complexes is more limited than in Moscow.
- ✓ The market is expected to face a decline in new construction volume due to an absence of new projects.
Quick Summary
The Russian retail real estate market is showing a surprising resilience in 2026, with the volume of new shopping center introductions projected to grow by 21% year-over-year. This increase brings the total new retail space to 638,000 square meters, a figure that is double the volume recorded the previous year.
Despite the ongoing crisis in the retail industry, driven by a shift in consumer demand toward online platforms, developers are actively expanding their footprint. The primary driver for this growth is a strategic shift in development activity toward regional markets. These areas currently offer more limited supply of shopping complexes compared to the capital city of Moscow. However, the market still faces challenges, as a lack of new project pipelines suggests that a decline in construction volume is inevitable in the near future.
Market Resilience Amidst Digital Shift
The retail real estate sector in Russia is preparing for a significant expansion despite facing a difficult economic environment. According to current projections, the volume of new shopping center introductions in 2026 is expected to increase by 21% compared to the previous year. This growth is not merely a minor fluctuation but represents a substantial recovery in the sector.
The total area of new retail space set to enter the market is estimated to reach 638,000 square meters. To put this into perspective, this volume is exactly double the amount of space introduced the year prior. This surge indicates a renewed confidence among developers, even as the broader retail industry grapples with a crisis characterized by the migration of consumer spending to online channels.
Regional Focus Drives Growth 📍
The primary engine behind this increase in construction volume is a geographical pivot. Developers are shifting their activity away from saturated markets and toward the regions. In Moscow, the supply of shopping complexes is already high, leaving less room for profitable new developments.
In contrast, regional markets offer a more favorable environment for expansion. The supply of shopping complexes in these areas is significantly more limited than in the capital. By targeting these locations, developers can fill market gaps and meet unmet consumer demand. This strategic move is the main factor ensuring the overall growth of the market in 2026.
Future Outlook and Challenges 📉
While the current growth figures are positive, the long-term outlook for the retail construction market contains significant warnings. The market is expected to eventually face a downturn in the volume of new construction. This impending decline is attributed to a fundamental lack of new projects currently in the development pipeline.
Without a steady stream of new initiatives being launched, the current growth cannot be sustained indefinitely. The industry must prepare for a period where the introduction of new retail space slows down, driven by the absence of future projects to replace those currently being completed.
