Global Order Shifts as US, China, Russia Redefine Power

The recent military offensive by the United States in Venezuela is triggering a fundamental restructuring of global power dynamics. Experts argue that the operation, which led to the capture of Nicolás Maduro, has effectively ended the post-Cold War era of multilateral cooperation. Instead, the world is shifting toward a bipolar order dominated by Washington and Beijing, with Russia maintaining significant regional influence. This shift is characterized by major powers disregarding international institutions like the UN to expand their territories. The event marks a transition from a world governed by rules to one defined by spheres of influence.

The recent US offensive in Venezuela has reportedly shaken the geopolitical foundations established after the Cold War. According to international relations experts, the world has entered a new historical phase defined by the aggressive expansion of major powers. Leonardo Trevisan, a professor of International Relations, stated, "We woke up on January 3, and the world had already changed." This sentiment reflects the view that the attack on Caracas solidified a transition away from a multipolar system toward a bipolar one.

For decades following World War II, global order was maintained by multilateral institutions such as the United Nations, the World Trade Organization, and the World Health Organization. However, analysts note that this framework is now crumbling. The current geopolitical landscape is defined by three primary powers: the United States, China, and Russia. These nations are increasingly acting unilaterally, ignoring the borders and agreements that previously governed international relations. As Oona Hathaway, a Political Science professor at Yale University, noted, the US action put an end to "a historic era of peace and threatens to lead us back to a world where force prevails."

The emerging world order is increasingly viewed as a bipolar system dominated by the United States and China. While Russia remains a significant military power, its economic standing and technological reach lag behind the two giants. Consequently, many experts believe Russia's influence will remain largely regional rather than global. Leonardo Trevisan argues that the world has transformed from a multilateral system to a bipolar one, stating, "The world, which was multilateral with some centers of power, has transformed into bipolar." He emphasizes that while Russia retains influence, China has taken its place as the second pole of power.

The rivalry between the United States and China is evident in both economic and military spheres. The two nations engaged in a prolonged tariff war, and their diplomatic tensions have escalated following the events in Venezuela. The Chinese government, while officially criticizing military actions without UN Security Council approval, has demonstrated its own willingness to project power. Leonardo Trevisan noted that China has "filled the South China Sea with artificial islands in a way that makes it impossible to invade." This expansion is part of a broader cycle of international propagation of power.

The concept of "spheres of influence" has returned to the forefront of international politics. The US offensive in Venezuela is seen by analysts as a clear signal that major powers feel free to act within their designated "backyards." Oliver Stuenkel, a professor at the Fundação Getúlio Vargas, described the shift as a transition "to a world of spheres of influence, in which great powers have the freedom to do whatever they want in their designated 'backyards.'"

The United States has explicitly invoked the Monroe Doctrine to justify its actions in Latin America. Following the operation, the US State Department declared, "This is our Hemisphere," reinforcing the intent to maintain dominance in the region. Similarly, China has established its own sphere of influence through military exercises around Taiwan and the construction of artificial islands. These actions demonstrate a disregard for international law and the UN Charter. As Vitelio Brustolin, a professor at the Federal University of Fluminense, observed, "We are seeing several countries invading other territories and tearing up the UN Charter. International law is no longer respected."

While the US and China dominate the global stage, Russia continues to exert significant pressure on the international community. The Russian government has been engaged in a nearly four-year war in Ukraine, which has forced the European Union to increase its defense budget, sparking a new arms race. Despite possessing one of the world's largest military arsenals, Russia's economy ranks 10th globally, significantly trailing the US and China. This economic disparity limits its ability to project power globally on the same scale as the other two giants.

However, Russia's ability to negotiate as an equal with the United States and its capacity to disrupt European security remain potent. Experts believe Russia will likely limit its influence to regional affairs. The current dynamic suggests a complex geopolitical chessboard where Russia plays a crucial, albeit regional, role while the primary global competition remains between Washington and Beijing.