PP-Vox Government Risks Alienating Euskadi

Historical context suggests that a government formed by the PP and Vox could negatively impact relations between Euskadi and the Spanish state. In 1996, Jaime Mayor Oreja, then leader of the PP in the Basque Country and Minister of the Interior under José María Aznar, advocated for a shared agreement with the PNV and PSE to defeat ETA. He argued that Spain needed to be attractive to reduce identity tensions.

However, the Aznar government, which served from 1996 to 2004, failed to achieve this goal. This period included a failed negotiation with ETA in Switzerland during the group's truce from 1998 to 2000. Current analysis indicates that a joint Executive formed by the PP and Vox, given their current discourse, would likely increase independentism and rejection of Spain.

In 1996, Jaime Mayor Oreja served as the leader of the PP in the Basque Country and held the position of Minister of the Interior in the government of José María Aznar. During this time, he frequently promoted the idea of a shared agreement between the PP, the PNV, and the PSE to achieve the defeat of ETA.

Mayor Oreja often accompanied this advocacy with an invocation that Spain must present itself as an attractive entity to help diminish the identity tension between Euskadi and the State. This approach was intended to foster unity and reduce the appeal of separatist ideologies.

The government of Aznar, which spanned from 1996 to 2004, faced significant difficulties in realizing the aspirations set forth by Mayor Oreja. Despite the stated goals, the administration struggled to bridge the divide between the central government and Basque nationalist parties.

Specifically, the administration became involved in a fallida negociación (failed negotiation) with ETA in Switzerland. This occurred during the ETA truce that lasted from 1998 to 2000, highlighting the complex and often unsuccessful attempts to resolve the conflict through dialogue during that era.

Based on the historical precedents and the current political landscape, the formation of an Executive involving both the PP and Vox is viewed with concern regarding regional stability. The discourse currently employed by these parties is a focal point of this analysis.

It is suggested that such a coalition government would not only fail to reduce tensions but would actively exacerbate them. Specifically, the joint governance is predicted to result in the following outcomes:

• An increase in independentism within Euskadi.
• A heightened rejection of Spain among the Basque population.
• A deterioration of the shared agreements previously sought by political leaders.