Dimitri Alperovitch on Russia's War and Tech Cold War

Dimitri Alperovitch has emerged as a leading voice on global security, offering a stark assessment of Russia's capacity to wage war and the shifting geopolitical landscape. Born in Russia, he now presides over a Washington-based think tank dedicated to analyzing the complex dynamics of great power competition.

His insights come at a critical juncture, as the world watches the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the rising tensions between the United States and China. Alperovitch's analysis provides a sobering look at the limits of Russian military endurance and the potential realignment of U.S. foreign policy priorities.

Alperovitch's most immediate and striking prediction concerns the war in Ukraine. He argues that Russia's military and economic resources are not infinite and that the country is approaching a critical point of exhaustion. According to his analysis, Russia will be unable to sustain its current level of military operations for much longer.

He projects a definitive timeline for the conflict's sustainability. "I do not think that Russia is capable of continuing the war in Ukraine for more than a year and a half," he states. This assessment suggests a potential turning point in the conflict, where logistical and financial constraints could force a significant change in strategy or lead to a stalemate.

"I do not think that Russia is capable of continuing the war in Ukraine for more than a year and a half."

The warning underscores the immense strain the war has placed on Russian infrastructure and supply lines. While the conflict continues to evolve, Alperovitch's timeline introduces a concrete horizon for policymakers and observers to consider.

Beyond the immediate conflict in Europe, Alperovitch's work focuses on a broader, more insidious struggle: the technological cold war between China and the United States. His latest essay delves into this competition, which is being fought not on traditional battlefields but in laboratories, boardrooms, and digital networks.

This new form of conflict centers on dominance in critical sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and quantum computing. The stakes are high, as control over these technologies could dictate economic and military superiority for decades to come. Alperovitch's analysis highlights how this rivalry is reshaping global alliances and economic policies.

• Competition for AI supremacy
• Battles over semiconductor supply chains
• Quantum computing race
• Global standards for digital infrastructure

The focus on technological competition represents a shift from the military confrontations of the 20th century. It is a silent, pervasive struggle that affects everything from consumer electronics to national security, with both superpowers seeking to secure a decisive advantage.

Alperovitch also offers a pointed observation about the potential direction of American foreign policy, particularly under a future Trump administration. He suggests a significant divergence in how different global flashpoints are viewed from Washington. The focus, he argues, would likely pivot away from Europe.

His analysis points to a clear hierarchy of concerns for a potential Trump presidency. "A Trump le importa mucho más Taiwán que Ucrania," he warns, indicating that Taiwan's security would be a paramount issue, potentially overshadowing the ongoing situation in Ukraine. This perspective suggests a strategic reorientation toward the Indo-Pacific region.

"A Trump le importa mucho más Taiwán que Ucrania."

This potential shift has profound implications for international relations. It could alter the dynamics of military aid, diplomatic pressure, and economic sanctions, forcing allies and adversaries alike to recalculate their strategies in response to a changing American focus.

Understanding Alperovitch's viewpoint requires looking at his unique background. As a Russian-born analyst now leading a prominent think tank in Washington, he occupies a distinctive position. His expertise is rooted in a deep understanding of both Russian society and the inner workings of Western intelligence and policy circles.

His leadership role at a think tank focused on great power competition places him at the center of strategic discussions. This environment allows him to synthesize intelligence from various sources, including agencies like the CIA and NSA, and provide analysis that is both nuanced and globally informed. His work is a bridge between academic theory and practical policy-making.

The combination of his personal history and professional expertise gives his predictions a particular weight. He is not merely an observer but an active participant in the dialogue shaping global security policy, offering insights that are both critical and forward-looking.

Dimitri Alperovitch's analysis provides a clear, if challenging, roadmap for the near future. His warning about Russia's limited capacity to continue the war in Ukraine suggests that the conflict may enter a new phase within the next 18 months, potentially leading to a negotiated settlement or a frozen conflict.

Simultaneously, his focus on the technological cold war between China and the United States highlights the long-term strategic competition that will define the 21st century. This silent war for technological supremacy will likely intensify, regardless of the outcome in Ukraine.

Finally, his insight into a potential shift in U.S. foreign policy priorities serves as a crucial reminder for allies worldwide. The emphasis on Taiwan over Ukraine signals a possible realignment of American strategic interests, with far-reaching consequences for global stability. The world must prepare for a future where these three dynamics—Russian exhaustion, technological rivalry, and shifting alliances—converge.