2025 Analyst Predictions Review: Ibex and Gold Outperform

Analysts approached 2025 with a stance of maximum prudence. The primary concern was the return of Donald Trump to the White House, which raised the specter of a global trade war.

Such a conflict was feared to have inflationary effects capable of stopping the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and worsening the economic fragility of the eurozone. Despite these risks, the consensus was that the US stock market would continue to lead global equities.

As the year unfolded, the economy and corporate earnings demonstrated greater resilience to political policies than anticipated. Consequently, the predictions regarding the soft landing environment largely held true, though specific market sectors performed very differently than expected.

When making projections for the year, analysts generally prefer to err on the side of caution. This was particularly true at the end of 2024, as the market prepared for the new administration in the United States.

The potential for a trade war was the dominant narrative. Market watchers feared that tariffs and protectionist measures would trigger inflation, effectively putting a brake on the monetary easing cycle initiated by the Fed.

Furthermore, the eurozone was already facing significant economic headwinds. The added pressure of global trade friction was expected to exacerbate this weakness, creating a challenging environment for European assets.

However, analysts did identify one clear trend: the continued dominance of US equities. The belief in a soft landing—where growth continues without high inflation—was the baseline scenario for the global economy.

The central variable in these forecasts was Donald Trump. Just months into the year, the President's actions proved that the market's initial apprehension was justified, yet the outcomes were not always what analysts predicted.

Trump's approach to governance was described as unpredictable. This volatility forced analysts to constantly revise their models throughout the first half of the year.

While the fear of instability was high, the actual economic data provided a counter-narrative. The anticipated negative impacts of the administration's policies were not as severe as the worst-case scenarios suggested.

Despite the noise surrounding political changes, the fundamental drivers of the market remained intact. The resilience of the US economy became the defining story of 2025, overshadowing the geopolitical tensions.

The divergence between predictions and reality became evident in specific asset classes. The Ibex and gold were the standout performers, pulverizing previous expectations.

These assets benefited from the very volatility that analysts feared. Gold acted as a safe haven, while the Ibex showed unexpected strength despite the eurozone's underlying weakness.

In contrast, small caps proved to be a disappointment. Investors who followed the call for caution in this sector likely missed out on other opportunities, but small caps failed to deliver the promised growth.

The technology sector also faced constant calls for prudence. These warnings largely failed to materialize into negative performance, as the sector continued to show robust growth.

Key market outcomes included:

• Ibex: Exceeded all conservative forecasts.
• Gold: Delivered massive returns, defying inflation fears.
• Small Caps: Underperformed relative to expectations.
• US Equities: Maintained their status as the market star.

Looking back at 2025, the prevailing theme was the resilience of the economy and corporate profits. The anticipated crash due to political changes never fully materialized.

The economy and earnings resisted the policies of the new administration better than anyone predicted. This resilience provided a floor for the markets, preventing the deep corrections that many analysts feared.

Ultimately, the year served as a reminder that while political factors like Donald Trump introduce volatility, the underlying economic fundamentals often dictate the long-term trajectory. The soft landing scenario largely played out, validating the optimistic baseline view while specific asset classes surprised to the upside.