Key Facts
- ✓ Cox Automotive expects wholesale prices on the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index to end this year 2% higher than December 2025.
- ✓ The projected 2% increase is considered a historically stable rate.
Quick Summary
Automotive industry analysts project a modest increase in wholesale used vehicle prices throughout 2026. According to recent market data, prices are expected to end the year approximately 2% higher than they were in December 2025.
This projected growth rate is considered historically stable, suggesting a balanced market environment for both dealers and consumers. The forecast is based on the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, a key industry benchmark. The anticipated 2% rise indicates that the market is moving away from the extreme volatility seen in previous years, settling into a more predictable pattern of gradual appreciation.
Market Forecast and Projections
The used vehicle market is poised for steady, incremental growth in the coming year. Cox Automotive has released a forecast indicating that wholesale prices will see a controlled increase.
The specific projection is a 2% rise by the end of 2026 compared to the close of 2025. This figure is derived from the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, which serves as a primary indicator for industry pricing trends.
Historical Context 📈
The 2% forecast is significant not for its magnitude, but for what it represents regarding market stability. Industry observers classify this rate as historically stable.
Recent years have been characterized by significant fluctuations in vehicle values due to supply chain disruptions and shifting consumer demand. A return to a 2% growth rate aligns with pre-pandemic market behaviors, suggesting a normalization of pricing dynamics. This stability benefits various stakeholders:
- Dealers can plan inventory purchases with greater certainty.
- Consumers may face more predictable pricing at dealerships.
- Lenders can assess risk based on more consistent vehicle valuation trends.
Implications for the Industry
A stable pricing environment has wide-ranging effects on the automotive ecosystem. For Cox Automotive, this forecast reinforces the importance of the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index as a tool for navigating the market.
For the broader industry, a 2% increase avoids the pitfalls of rapid depreciation, which can hurt dealer profitability, while also preventing sharp spikes that could alienate buyers. This equilibrium supports sustained activity in the used car sector.
Conclusion
The outlook for 2026 suggests a used vehicle market defined by balance rather than extremes. With a projected 2% increase in wholesale prices, the sector is expected to mirror historically stable patterns.
As the year progresses, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index will continue to serve as the primary metric for tracking these trends. The forecast provides a baseline for expectations, signaling a year of steady, manageable growth for used vehicle values.
