Saudi-UAE Rivalry in Yemen: A Frenemies Dynamic

Analysts say talk has swirled of rifts on several issues between Saudi Arabia's MBS and the man once thought of as his mentor, the Emirates' Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. The rivalry between the two Gulf powers has burst into view, particularly regarding the conflict in Yemen. This relationship is characterized as one of 'frenemies,' where cooperation and competition exist simultaneously. The source of the friction appears to stem from differing strategic approaches to regional stability and the war in Yemen. This development highlights the shifting power dynamics within the Gulf Cooperation Council.

The relationship between Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan of the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has long been viewed through the lens of mentorship. For years, the UAE leader was considered the primary guide and strategic partner for the Saudi Crown Prince. This alliance was foundational to many of the geopolitical shifts seen in the Middle East over the last decade. However, recent observations suggest the dynamic is evolving.

Analysts note that the bond is no longer defined solely by alignment. Instead, it has taken on the characteristics of a complex rivalry. The two nations, while sharing many goals, are increasingly pursuing distinct paths. This shift is most evident in their military and political engagements abroad. The 'frenemies' label captures the nuance of a relationship that is both cooperative and competitive.

The conflict in Yemen serves as the primary stage for the visible divergence between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Both countries intervened in the civil war to support the government against Houthi rebels, but their objectives have not always been identical. The source material highlights that the rivalry has 'burst into view' specifically in this context. Disagreements over local proxies and the ultimate goals of the intervention have strained the partnership.

These rifts are not merely theoretical; they manifest in strategic decision-making. While Saudi Arabia has often prioritized a broader political settlement, the UAE has focused on securing specific strategic assets and supporting southern separatist groups. These differing priorities create friction on the ground and at the diplomatic level. The visibility of these disagreements marks a turning point in the regional response to the war.

While Yemen is the flashpoint, analysts suggest the rifts extend to several issues. The friction between MBS and Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan touches on economic competition, influence in the Horn of Africa, and relations with Western powers. The UAE has sought to establish itself as a distinct power center, rather than merely a junior partner to Riyadh. This ambition naturally creates areas of overlap and competition.

The erosion of the mentor-protégé dynamic signals a maturation of Gulf politics. Both leaders are asserting their own national interests more forcefully. This includes diverging views on how to handle the aftermath of the Arab Spring and how to engage with Iran and Turkey. The complexity of these issues ensures that the rivalry will remain a defining feature of the region's politics.

The current state of affairs suggests that the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the UAE will remain fluid. The 'frenemies' status allows for continued cooperation in areas of mutual benefit while acknowledging deep-seated competition. The rivalry does not necessarily imply a breakdown in relations, but rather a more transactional and less sentimental approach to diplomacy. Both nations remain key players in the Gulf.

Observers will be watching closely to see how these tensions resolve. Will the two powers find a modus vivendi in Yemen and beyond, or will the rivalry deepen? The answer lies in the ability of MBS and Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan to balance their national ambitions with regional stability. The visibility of their rivalry is a warning sign that the old order is changing.