Saudi Arabia and UAE: A New Middle East Cold War?

A recent Saudi air strike on UAE weapons in Yemen exposed major differences between the two important Gulf states' foreign policy plans. The incident marks a significant escalation in tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, two nations that have historically been close allies. The strike targeted weapons supplied by the UAE, indicating a direct confrontation between their respective military strategies in the region.

This development has led to speculation about a potential 'Cold War' developing in the Middle East, as both countries pursue divergent paths in their regional engagements. The core question emerging from this conflict is which nation's foreign policy approach is most likely to succeed in achieving its objectives. The answer to this question will likely shape the geopolitical landscape of the Gulf region for years to come, affecting not only the war in Yemen but also broader regional alliances and power dynamics.

The catalyst for the current diplomatic friction was a specific military action carried out by Saudi Arabia. A Saudi air strike targeted weapons belonging to the UAE that were located in Yemen. This was not a case of mistaken targeting; it was a deliberate action that exposed the underlying strategic disagreements between the two Gulf monarchies. For years, both nations have been key partners in the military coalition intervening in Yemen, but this event pulled back the curtain on their diverging priorities.

The destruction of UAE weapons by a Saudi warplane is a stark symbol of the breakdown in coordination. It suggests that Riyadh is no longer willing to tolerate the independent military activities of its partner in a theater where they are supposed to be aligned. This action has forced a public acknowledgment of the rift that had been simmering behind closed doors. The incident serves as a clear indicator that the alliance, once considered unshakable, is now under severe strain due to conflicting strategic calculations.

The core of the dispute lies in the fundamentally different foreign policy plans of Saudi Arabia and the UAE. While both are monarchies and share concerns about regional instability, their methods and ultimate goals in Yemen and beyond have started to diverge. Saudi Arabia's primary focus has been on restoring the internationally recognized government and containing what it perceives as Iranian-backed Houthi expansion on its southern border. Their approach has been more traditional, relying on air power and supporting local allies to achieve these state-centric objectives.

In contrast, the UAE has pursued a more pragmatic and at times contradictory strategy. Abu Dhabi has focused on securing strategic assets, such as ports and airfields in southern Yemen, and has backed various secessionist and militia groups that do not always align with the goals of the Saudi-backed government. This has created a complex web of loyalties and conflicts on the ground. The UAE's foreign policy appears more geared towards building influence and countering political Islamism, which sometimes puts it at odds with Saudi Arabia's broader anti-Iranian agenda. These competing visions are what led to the recent confrontation.

The term 'Cold War' is increasingly used to describe the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This analogy is fitting because, unlike a 'hot' war, the conflict is not being fought directly with armies on the battlefield. Instead, it is a struggle for influence played out through proxy forces, economic pressure, and competing diplomatic initiatives across the Middle East and North Africa. The air strike on UAE weapons is a rare moment where the 'cold' conflict briefly turned 'hot' in a tactical sense, but the overarching rivalry remains one of strategic competition rather than open warfare.

This new dynamic is reshaping regional alliances. Both nations are vying for leadership of the Gulf, and their competition extends beyond Yemen to other arenas like Libya, Sudan, and the Horn of Africa. They are backing opposing sides in these conflicts, further entrenching their rivalry. The central question remains which of their competing plans for regional order will ultimately prove more successful. The outcome of this geopolitical contest will determine the balance of power in the Middle East for the foreseeable future.

Determining which foreign policy plan is more likely to succeed is a complex matter. Saudi Arabia possesses greater economic resources and a larger population, giving it significant long-term advantages. Its vision for a stable, state-centric Gulf aligned against Iranian influence has a clear logic and has traditionally been the dominant regional paradigm. However, its military intervention in Yemen has proven to be a costly and difficult undertaking, with its objectives still far from achieved. The recent tensions with the UAE further complicate its ability to execute its strategy effectively.

The UAE has demonstrated remarkable agility and strategic acumen. Despite its smaller size, it has successfully projected power and built a network of influence that punches well above its weight. Its pragmatic, transactional approach has allowed it to secure key strategic assets and adapt quickly to changing circumstances on the ground. However, its strategy also carries risks, as its backing of disparate militias can lead to instability that ultimately undermines its own interests. The success of the UAE's plan depends on its ability to manage these complex relationships and avoid direct confrontation with its larger neighbor. The competition between these two Gulf giants is far from over, and the ultimate winner is yet to be determined.