• The Progressive Party (PP) announced on Saturday, December 27, that it is evaluating the launch of a candidate for the government of São Paulo in 2026.
  • Allies of Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) view the movement with skepticism, interpreting the announcement as a strategy to court Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), pressure for more government positions and budget amendments, and strengthen the party's bench in the state legislature.
  • Relations between the PP and the Tarcísio administration are reportedly strained, with party leaders noting a lack of integration.
  • The PP currently holds four federal deputy seats in São Paulo and aims to increase this number.

Quick Summary

The Progressive Party (PP) announced on Saturday, December 27, that it is assessing the possibility of launching a candidate for the government of São Paulo in the 2026 elections. This decision has been met with skepticism by allies of Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos), who view the move as a strategic play rather than a genuine political bid.

According to political observers, the announcement serves multiple purposes: it acts as an overture to Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), applies pressure for more government positions and budget amendments, and aims to strengthen the party's legislative bench. The PP currently has four federal deputies in São Paulo and seeks to expand this representation. However, the plan faces internal challenges, including resistance within the party federation with União Brasil and the requirement that a viable candidate with strong polling numbers emerges.

Strategic Motivations Behind the Move

The PP's evaluation of a gubernatorial run is driven by specific political grievances and strategic goals. Party leaders have reported that the relationship with the current state administration has become strained. There is a perceived distancing between state government members and party directors, alongside discontent among mayors and state deputies regarding the current dynamics.

The movement is also viewed as a way to secure leverage. Allies of Tarcísio believe the announcement is a form of pressure to secure more government appointments and parliamentary amendments. Furthermore, the party leadership believes that running a candidate with a strong ideological platform could be more strategic for the 2026 election cycle.

The PP's current standing in the state government is limited. The party does not currently integrate the high echelon of the Tarcísio administration. Notable departures include:

  • Federal Deputy Guilherme Derrite (PP-SP), who left the administration in November.
  • Secretary of the Civil House Arthur Lima, who left the party in 2024.

Despite these tensions, some within the party still view Tarcísio as the strongest candidate, though they acknowledge it is too early to predict the weight of former President Jair Bolsonaro's support for his son versus the current governor.

Potential Candidates and Conditions

The PP has made it clear that launching a candidate is conditional. Directors state that the plan will only proceed if a viable candidate emerges who polls well. The goal is to utilize the candidacy to help form a stronger bancada (legislative group) in the state legislature, aiming to gain at least two additional federal deputy seats.

Several names have been floated internally as potential contenders:

  • Filipe Sabará: Former Secretary of Social Development of São Paulo and an ally of Flávio Bolsonaro.
  • Ricardo Salles: Federal Deputy (Novo-SP).
  • Rodrigo Garcia: Former Governor of São Paulo.

However, the availability of these candidates varies. Ricardo Salles has explicitly stated that he intends to run for the Senate and will not be running for governor. Regarding Rodrigo Garcia, allies report that while he is willing to run for a major office, he would not run against Tarcísio or Ricardo Nunes (MDB) if they decide to run.

Political Context and Relations

The political landscape regarding the PP's potential candidacy is complex. The party has a history of shifting alliances in São Paulo. During the 2022 elections, the PP initially composed the coalition of Rodrigo Garcia in the first round before declaring support for Tarcísio de Freitas.

The announcement of the potential candidacy reportedly caught members of the state government by surprise, with one interlocutor noting that government officials were taken aback by the news. The internal dynamics of the party federation, specifically with União Brasil, are also expected to present resistance to the project.

While Flávio Bolsonaro remains convinced of his intention to run for the presidency, the PP is navigating the potential shifts in political alliances that could arise from the former president's support for his son and the potential abandonment of Tarcísio. The party is weighing these factors carefully as they decide on their final course of action for 2026.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is the PP considering a candidate for São Paulo governor?

The PP cites discontent among mayors and deputies with the current administration, a perceived distancing from the government, and a strategy to align with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. They also aim to expand their legislative bench.

Who are the potential candidates mentioned?

Potential names include Filipe Sabará and federal deputy Ricardo Salles, though Salles has stated he will run for Senate. Former governor Rodrigo Garcia is also mentioned but reportedly would not run against Tarcísio.

What is the current relationship between the PP and the state government?

The relationship is described as strained. The PP does not integrate the high echelon of the government, and key figures like Guilherme Derrite and Arthur Lima have left the administration or the party.