Nintendo's Next 3D Mario Game Could Arrive in 2026

It has been over eight years since the release of Super Mario Odyssey, and speculation is growing regarding the timeline for the next mainline 3D Mario title. The argument for a 2026 release centers on Nintendo's recent software releases, which may have exhausted major franchises for the year.

Recent major releases include Super Mario Bros. Wonder, Mario Kart World, and The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom. Additionally, the upcoming debut of The Super Mario Bros. Galaxy Movie in April is viewed as a strategic opportunity to capitalize on renewed interest in the franchise.

The Switch 2 console reportedly fell behind the Switch 1 in sales during the previous holiday season, a factor attributed to the absence of a major Western game. A new 3D Mario title is identified as a potential solution to this gap. Historically, Nintendo has rarely produced direct sequels for 3D Mario games, with Super Mario Galaxy 2 being the primary exception, suggesting the next title may be a new adventure rather than Super Mario Odyssey 2.

The gap between major 3D Mario releases has extended significantly. The last mainline entry before Super Mario Odyssey was Super Mario Galaxy 2, released in 2010. This created a seven-year gap for that generation. As of 2026, the wait for an Odyssey successor has surpassed eight years.

Expectations were high for a release in the fall of 2025. Many anticipated that Nintendo would celebrate the 40th anniversary of the original Super Mario Bros. with a new 3D title. This release strategy would have mirrored the original Switch launch, where Odyssey drove sales during the system's first holiday season. However, the anniversary passed with only a 4K remaster of Super Mario Galaxy 1 and 2 being offered.

Analysis of Nintendo's recent release schedule suggests the company may be ready to launch a major title. Many of Nintendo's heavy hitters have already seen recent releases, potentially clearing the way for a new 3D Mario game later this year.

Key recent and upcoming releases include:

• Super Mario Bros. Wonder (Fall 2023)
• Mario Kart World (Switch 2 launch title)
• The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (2023)
• Donkey Kong Bananza (Switch 2 launch window)
• Super Mario Party Jamboree (2024)
• Pokémon Legends: Z-A (Fall 2025)
• Metroid Prime 4 (released recently)

With these major franchises recently updated, a new 3D Mario game fits the schedule. Furthermore, an unnamed senior source revealed that Switch 2 sales fell behind the pace of the Switch 1 in key markets during the past holiday season. This was attributed to the "absence of a major Western game." A global title like 3D Mario could address this sales gap.

The release of The Super Mario Bros. Galaxy Movie on April 3 provides a strong marketing catalyst. The first movie became the highest-grossing video game movie ever, earning over $1.3 billion at the box office. A sequel is expected to generate similar enthusiasm.

Releasing a new game alongside the movie's theatrical run would allow Nintendo to capitalize on the massive publicity. Super Mario Odyssey sold nearly 30 million copies. A successor released on the Switch 2 could replicate these numbers, potentially generating significant revenue and driving hardware sales.

While the timing seems favorable, the specific nature of the game remains unknown. It is unclear if the project will be Super Mario Odyssey 2 or an entirely new concept.

Based on Nintendo's history with 3D Mario titles, a new original adventure is a strong possibility. Super Mario Galaxy 2 stands as the only direct sequel in the 3D series history (excluding the distinction between Super Mario 3D Land and Super Mario 3D World). If the release does not occur in 2026, the wait for a new mainline title would extend to a full decade.