Experts React to US Raid Capturing Maduro

President Donald Trump announced on Saturday that the United States had captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife during a raid. The operation has generated divided reactions from business figures and foreign policy analysts regarding the aftermath. Charles Myers of Signum Global Advisors views the event as an economic opportunity, predicting rapid growth driven by foreign investment in oil, tourism, and construction. Conversely, Ian Bremmer of Eurasia Group and Senator Elizabeth Warren expressed concerns about the potential for global conflict and unconstitutional actions. Bill Ackman highlighted economic implications for oil prices and Russia, while Henry Gao discussed the international law ramifications. Elon Musk praised the operation as a victory for the world. The reactions highlight a split between economic optimism and geopolitical caution.

The raid on Venezuela has sparked optimism among some business leaders regarding the country's financial future. Charles Myers, chairman of political risk consulting firm Signum Global Advisors, identified foreign investment as a primary driver for recovery. He stated that investment in oil, tourism, and construction will be the "centerpiece" of Venezuela's financial recovery. Myers expects the country's economy to grow "faster over the next two years than people anticipate because of the extent or scale of foreign investment."

Myers, a former head of investment advisory firm Evercore, is actively facilitating this recovery. He is planning a trip of 15-20 investors to visit Venezuela in March to identify specific investment opportunities. Signum Global Advisors has previously hosted similar trips for investor groups in Syria and Ukraine, suggesting a structured approach to post-conflict investment.

Bill Ackman, the billionaire hedge fund manager, also highlighted economic benefits. He wrote that the removal of Maduro will lower oil prices, which he described as "good for America and very bad for Russia." Ackman suggested that a weaker Russian economy increases the probability that the war in Ukraine ends sooner and on more favorable terms for Ukraine.

While some focus on economic gains, others worry about the strategic implications of the raid. Ian Bremmer, founder of the political risk research and consulting firm Eurasia Group, criticized the US approach to the future of Venezuela. He wrote that the "US presumption is next Venezuelan leaders will now do what the Americans want because they've just seen the 'or else.'" Bremmer accompanied his post with a drawing of a horse, where the hindquarters were detailed and labeled "SOF operation to capture Maduro," while the head was a rudimentary drawing labeled "plans for future of Venezuela." He remarked, "I wouldn't exactly call it a plan."

In a separate post, Bremmer warned of broader global consequences. He wrote, "The law of the jungle is dangerous. What applies to your enemies one day can apply to you the next. Make no mistake where the world is heading here."

Senator Elizabeth Warren focused on domestic legality and regional stability. She wrote that Trump's action to seize Maduro, "no matter how terrible a dictator he is — is unconstitutional and threatens to drag the US into further conflicts in the region." She questioned what it means for the US to "run" Venezuela and what Trump might do next globally. Warren stated, "The American people voted for lower costs, not for Trump's dangerous military adventurism overseas that won't make the American people safer."

The raid has triggered a debate on the state of international law. Henry Gao, a senior fellow at the Center for International Governance Innovation and a law professor at Singapore Management University, described the raid on Caracas as ushering in "the brave new world of international law." He noted that the capture "triggered the biggest revival of international law since Grotius."

Gao addressed comparisons being made between Venezuela and Taiwan. He explained that China has never treated the Taiwan issue as a matter of international law, framing it instead as an internal affair with Taiwan regarded as a renegade province. Gao concluded that the reason China has not acted is not due to a lack of legal justification, but a lack of capability. Therefore, he argued, "US ops in Venezuela provide China with no additional legal justification."

Elon Musk offered strong support for the operation. The Tesla and SpaceX CEO posted praise for the military actions, calling it "heartwarming to see so many Venezuelans celebrating their country freed from a brutal tyrant." Musk retweeted a White House image of Maduro aboard the USS Iwo Jima, captioning it, "Congratulations, President Trump! This is a win for the world and a clear message to evil dictators everywhere."