Key Facts
- âś“ Following two years of immense hype in 2023 and 2024, 2025 felt like a settling-in period for the LLM-based token prediction industry.
- âś“ OpenAI CEO Sam Altman claimed in January that the company knew how to build AGI, but by November celebrated that GPT-5.1 learned to use em dashes correctly.
- âś“ Nvidia soared past a $5 trillion valuation, while some banks warned of a potential AI bubble rivaling the 2000s dotcom crash.
- âś“ Commercial foundational model builders must sell practical AI-powered solutions to make money now.
Quick Summary
After two years of immense hype in 2023 and 2024, the artificial intelligence industry experienced a settling-in period in 2025. The focus shifted from viewing AI models as future threats to civilization to recognizing them as useful but imperfect tools.
While significant money continues to bet on a world-rocking trajectory, the timeline for such events keeps getting pushed back. The industry consensus is that more significant technical breakthroughs are required before lofty goals like artificial general intelligence (AGI) are realized. Consequently, commercial model builders are pivoting toward selling practical solutions that perform as reliable tools.
The Shift from Prophecy to Pragmatism 📉
The year 2025 represented a distinct change in tone for the LLM-based token prediction industry. For over two years, public discourse was dominated by fretting over AI models as existential threats or the seedlings of future gods. However, the narrative has cooled, giving way to a more pragmatic assessment of current capabilities.
Today's AI is widely acknowledged as very useful, yet it remains clearly imperfect and prone to mistakes. This reality check has forced a re-evaluation of the industry's trajectory.
Despite the cooling rhetoric, the original, lofty claims that humanity is on the verge of artificial general intelligence (AGI) or superintelligence (ASI) have not disappeared entirely. However, there is a growing awareness that such proclamations are perhaps best viewed as venture capital marketing rather than immediate technical realities.
"Today's AI can be very useful, but it's also clearly imperfect and prone to mistakes."
— Industry Assessment
Commercial Realities and Profit Motives
Every commercial foundational model builder faces a distinct financial reality: to make money now, they must sell practical AI-powered solutions. The era of selling promises is ending, replaced by the need to deliver reliable tools that function consistently for users.
This commercial pressure has created a year of wild juxtapositions. The industry is attempting to balance the long-term vision of superintelligence with the short-term need for viable business models.
The shift requires a focus on usability over raw capability. Companies are realizing that reliability is currently more valuable to the market than the theoretical potential of god-like intelligence.
Juxtapositions in Leadership and Valuation 🏢
The contrast between hype and reality was starkly illustrated by Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI. In January, Altman claimed that the company knew how to build AGI. By November, the rhetoric had shifted significantly; he was publicly celebrating that GPT-5.1 finally learned to use em dashes correctly when instructed, though not always.
Financial markets reflected this duality. Nvidia soared past a $5 trillion valuation, signaling massive investor confidence in the hardware powering the AI boom. Wall Street continues to project high price targets for the company's stock.
However, the optimism is not universal. Some banks have warned of the potential for an AI bubble that might rival the 2000s dotcom crash. This divide highlights the uncertainty surrounding the industry's immediate future.
Conclusion: A Year of Adjustment
Ultimately, 2025 will be remembered as a year where lofty promises collided with inconvenient research. The industry is currently in a necessary transition phase, moving from would-be oracles to functioning software tools.
While the race toward AGI continues, the path forward requires acknowledging current limitations. The focus has settled on building robust, practical applications that serve immediate needs, rather than chasing the elusive dream of artificial superintelligence in the near term.
"The original, lofty claims that we're on the verge of artificial general intelligence (AGI) or superintelligence (ASI) have not disappeared. Still, there's a growing awareness that such proclaimations are perhaps best viewed as venture capital marketing."
— Industry Assessment
"In January, OpenAI's CEO, Sam Altman, claimed that the company knew how to build AGI, but by November, he was publicly celebrating that GPT-5.1 finally learned to use em dashes correctly when instructed (but not always)."
— Industry Assessment



