European Airports Face Drone Disruptions Amid Hybrid Warfare Concerns

The wave of airport closures began in late September when large drones were spotted flying near Copenhagen Airport around 8:30 p.m. on a Monday. All takeoffs and landings were halted for nearly four hours, resulting in more than 50 flights being diverted and over 100 additional flights canceled.

On the same day, Oslo Airport in Norway experienced disruptions to 30 flights due to another suspected drone sighting. The pattern continued across Europe in subsequent months. Munich Airport in Germany faced shutdowns twice within a 24-hour period in early October.

Collectively, these incidents have disrupted travel plans for over 10,000 people. While creating significant inconvenience for travelers, analysts and political leaders characterize these events as examples of hybrid warfare—a strategy employing plausible deniability to undermine society, often complemented by disinformation and cyberattacks.

As Blaise Metreweli, chief of the UK's Secret Intelligence Service, stated in her December 15 inaugural speech: "The new frontline is everywhere."

The impact of these disruptions has been particularly palpable in Lithuania, a Baltic nation of fewer than 3 million people whose eastern border sits less than 70 miles from Russia's westernmost edge. Over the past 10 weeks, the airport in Vilnius, the capital, has been shut down 15 times.

Remarkably, these closures were not caused by drones, but by balloons smuggling crates of cheap cigarettes across the border from Belarus. Sean Patrick, senior aviation security analyst at Osprey Flight Solutions, explained the challenge: "They are also difficult to detect because they're not big aircraft or drones. It is quite clever exploiting this from the Russian side to use these systems, and they've pushed Lithuania to declare this emergency."

The situation escalated when approximately 20 Russian drones flew across the border into Poland—thirteen days before the Scandinavia incidents. NATO forces scrambled jets and shot down up to four drones, prompting Poland to invoke Article 4 of the NATO treaty for the first time since the Ukraine War began in 2022.

Establishing direct links to Russia has proven complex. During the Copenhagen incident, a Russia-linked ship was located off the Danish coast. The French military later boarded the oil tanker, and the captain, a Chinese national, was charged with refusing instructions from the French navy.

Sean Patrick noted the difficulty of tracking such vessels: "A lot of these ships have changed their names quite recently. They've got new flags. It makes it very hard to follow who's doing what, who's working for who."

However, attribution remains uncertain in other cases. Norwegian police closed their investigation into the Oslo incident, citing insufficient evidence that drones were actually present. Russian President Vladimir Putin has denied any involvement.

An Osprey Flight Solutions analyst report from earlier this month stated: "It remains unconfirmed whether any/all of the … incidents are directly linked." The report added: "Osprey assesses that some of the drone sightings are likely to be false identifications—not drones."

Analysts warn that current drone disruptions may signal more severe threats ahead. In July 2024, a package exploded in a DHL freight center in Leipzig, Germany. The head of Germany's domestic intelligence service described it as "only a lucky coincidence" that the delayed package caught fire on the ground rather than during flight. Similar fires occurred at depots in Poland and the UK.

In September, Lithuanian prosecutors charged 15 individuals with terrorism offenses. The accused, with links to Russian intelligence, allegedly placed explosive devices in vibrating massage pillows triggered by electronic timers. All parcels were shipped from Lithuania, and investigators believe these were dry runs aimed at sabotaging flights to the US and Canada.

Sean Patrick expressed concern about the escalation ladder: "You can't see Europe going to war with Russia over some balloons in Lithuania. And then it's where do you get to the limit? Does Europe want to find out what the limit is?" He added: "If they do blow up a railway or set off an incendiary device on a transatlantic flight, what's the next step? Do people want to find out that next step?"

These incidents reflect a new reality for Europeans since the Ukraine War began in 2022. Even Dublin Airport, over 1,500 miles from Kyiv, experienced a drone incident coinciding with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's visit. Some European leaders have called for building a drone wall—a system of air defenses in eastern Europe to intercept drones launched from Russia.

Despite ongoing peace discussions for Ukraine, tensions are expected to persist. Sean Patrick concluded: "Even if the Ukraine war comes to some sort of hold, ceasefire, peace agreement, I think we can expect Russia to continue these. They've got a taste for it now."