Warehouse Rent Rates Drop in Moscow Region

The warehouse rental market in Moscow and the Moscow Region is currently undergoing a significant correction. After a period of sharp price increases, rental rates are now beginning to decline. This shift is driven by a changing balance between supply and demand.

Specifically, the market is seeing a rise in vacancy rates. This is a direct result of two concurrent trends: an increase in the total amount of available warehouse space and a reduction in leasing activity from major tenants. The combination of these factors has created a surplus in the market, forcing prices downward.

Current market data projects that rental rates will contract by 16% by the end of this year. The decline is expected to persist, with an additional 5% decrease anticipated throughout 2026. However, market observers note that this trajectory is not guaranteed to last indefinitely. Experts suggest that the current situation could evolve, with the potential for market conditions to change during the second half of next year.

The logistics real estate sector in the central Russian market is facing a notable downturn. After a period of rapid expansion characterized by rising costs, the market is now stabilizing through price reductions. The current 16% decrease in rental rates marks a significant reversal of previous trends.

This correction is largely attributed to the dynamics of supply and demand. The availability of warehouse space has grown, creating more options for potential tenants. Simultaneously, the appetite for these spaces among major market players has softened.

The resulting increase in vacancy levels has placed downward pressure on pricing. Landlords are now adjusting their expectations to attract tenants in a more competitive environment.

Two specific factors are identified as the primary drivers behind the current market decline. First, the increase in supply has outpaced the growth in demand. New warehouse facilities have come online, expanding the total inventory of available space.

Second, there has been a distinct weakening of demand from key renters. These major tenants, who typically drive the bulk of market activity, are currently leasing less space than in previous periods.

Together, these elements have created an environment where available space sits vacant for longer periods. This dynamic forces property owners to lower their rental rates to remain competitive and secure leases.

While the current data points to a declining market, the long-term outlook remains subject to change. Projections indicate that the downward pressure on prices will continue through the next year. The total reduction in rental rates is expected to reach 21% by the end of 2026.

However, industry experts offer a note of optimism regarding the medium-term future. They indicate that the current negative trend may not be permanent. The market environment is expected to potentially shift during the second half of the upcoming year.

This suggests that the market could find a bottom and begin to stabilize or recover in the latter half of 2026. The situation remains fluid, and the timing of any potential recovery will depend on how supply and demand metrics evolve over the coming months.