Russian IT Market Growth Slows to 3% in 2025

The Russian IT market is facing a significant slowdown in 2025, marking the end of a multi-year period of explosive growth. After expanding by 20% in 2024, the market's turnover is now projected to increase by just 3% year-over-year.

This sharp deceleration follows a trend of rapid expansion that began in 2022, driven by unprecedented demand for import substitution from both private businesses and state entities. The latest figures suggest a major shift in market dynamics as the initial surge in demand for domestic technology solutions begins to stabilize.

The Russian IT sector, which has been a focal point of the country's economic strategy, is showing signs of significant cooling. For three consecutive years, the market experienced explosive growth, largely in response to record demand for import substitution. This trend, which started in 2022, saw businesses and government agencies rapidly adopting domestic technologies to replace foreign software and hardware.

However, the momentum has shifted dramatically in the current year. Analysts provided their assessment in December, presenting a much more modest outlook than in previous years. The data indicates that the period of rapid, double-digit expansion may be concluding as the market enters a new phase of development.

The forecast for the full year of 2025 reveals a stark contrast to the recent past. The total turnover of the domestic IT market is expected to grow by only 3% when compared to the previous year.

This figure stands in sharp opposition to the performance in 2024, where the market saw a robust 20% increase. The projection encompasses the entire B2B sector, including:

• IT services
• Software (ПО)
• IT equipment

This comprehensive view highlights the broad-based nature of the slowdown across the industry.

The specific growth forecast was provided by IT integrator T1. This entity serves as a key analyst for the market, providing data that reflects the overall health and trajectory of the industry. Their projection of a mere 3% growth for 2025 signals a potential stabilization of the market after years of volatility and rapid change.

The slowing growth rate suggests that the initial, urgent wave of import substitution may be reaching maturity. As the market adjusts to this new reality, the focus may shift from rapid acquisition to long-term integration and development of existing domestic solutions.