Brazilian Beef Sector Targets 92.6% Emissions Cut

A joint study conducted by the FGV and ABIEC projects that Brazilian cattle ranching can reduce CO2 emissions by at least 79.9% by 2050. This reduction is contingent on maintaining current efficiency trends and adopting new sustainable practices. With additional measures, the sector could achieve a reduction of up to 92.6% in the same timeframe.

The research highlights the importance of pasture recovery and the Brazilian government's goal to end deforestation by 2030. The study was presented at the COP30 summit held in Belém. Even with production growth, net emissions are projected to fall by up to 85.4%.

The study, developed by the Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV) in partnership with the Associação Brasileira das Indústrias Exportadoras de Carnes (ABIEC), outlines a clear path for decarbonization. It concludes that the sector must reduce CO2 emissions in meat production by at least 79.9% by 2050. This projection relies on the maintenance of the current pace of adopting more efficient production practices and converting new areas for pasture.

However, the reduction potential is even higher if additional measures are implemented. The study indicates that emissions could drop by 92.6% if specific actions are taken. These measures include the recovery of pastures and the adoption of regenerative livestock practices. Furthermore, these projections are closely tied to the compliance with the Brazilian government's target of zero deforestation by 2030.

The research was unveiled during the COP30, which took place in Belém in November. Beyond gross emissions, the FGV also analyzed net emissions, defined as emissions minus removals. Even with the growth of production, net emissions are expected to fall significantly until 2050: 60.7% in the scenario of continuing current trends and up to 85.4% in the most optimistic scenario.

The study analyzed four feasible scenarios to determine the potential for emissions reduction. The first scenario simulated the continuation of current land use trends and productivity increases. According to ABIEC, since 1990, Brazilian livestock has increased productivity by 183% while reducing the area occupied by pastures by 18%. If this pace is maintained, emissions would drop from 80 kg of CO2 to 16.1 kg per kilogram of animal protein produced, representing a 79.9% reduction.

The second scenario considers the compliance with the government's goal of zero deforestation by 2030, which would allow for a reduction of 86.3%. The third scenario involves the full adoption of the Plano ABC+ (Sectoral Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change and Low Carbon Emissions in Agriculture), focusing on recovering degraded pastures and expanding integrated systems. In this scenario, decarbonization reaches 91.6%.

The fourth and most optimistic scenario projects a reduction of 92.6%. It incorporates the elements of the previous scenarios and adds the use of techniques such as feed additives to reduce enteric fermentation and early slaughter as efficiency drivers. According to ABIEC, this advanced scenario depends on the application of public policies that serve as a lever and guide for productive action.

For the most advanced decarbonization scenarios to materialize, the study identifies essential requirements. One of the key issues is the end of illegality and the achievement of the zero deforestation target by 2030. This will require the participation of the productive sector. To make this happen, plans for preventing and combating deforestation must be implemented, along with public traceability policies.

Specific actions mentioned in the study include:

• The National Plan for Bovine Identification (PNIB)
• The AgroBrasil+Sustentável platform
• State initiatives such as the Green Seal and the Pará Livestock Integrity Program

Additionally, ABIEC views that the government needs to create incentive and financing mechanisms. These would accelerate the adoption of Plano ABC+ practices and advanced technologies. The goal is to ensure that investments in the conservation and recovery of degraded pastures are economically viable for rural producers.

Researchers and industry leaders emphasize the dual goal of increasing production while decarbonizing. Camila Estevam, a researcher at FGV Agro, stated: "Our objective was to understand the role of Brazilian livestock in the climate agenda and identify where the greatest mitigation opportunities lie." She added, "The results indicate that the sector has the conditions to expand its production and, at the same time, advance on a consistent decarbonization trajectory, acting as an ally of the climate agenda."

Roberto Perosa, president of ABIEC, highlighted the central role of Brazilian cattle ranching in the climate agenda. He noted the potential to contribute to decarbonization, thereby freeing up space for Brazil's goals under the Paris Agreement. "This is a reason for great pride, but it also increases our responsibility even further, because we need to continue accelerating the path we are already treading," he said.