US-Europe Alliance Reversal in 2025

The year 2025 is increasingly viewed as the moment the Atlantic Alliance effectively ended. For eight decades, the United States and Europe maintained a security architecture that defined the Western world. However, current observations suggest this era is closing. The Washington Post has noted that the current administration's doctrine appears to be 'Make America Small Again,' signaling a retreat from global leadership and traditional alliances.

While the infrastructure of the alliance remains—troops are not packing their bags and bases remain open—the political substance has evaporated. The Consejo de Relaciones Exteriores (Council on Foreign Relations) highlights that the secretary general of the alliance has been forced to issue constant praise for the US leadership to prevent a scandalous rupture. This diplomatic maneuvering underscores the fragility of the current situation. The core question remains: can an alliance function when its primary architect actively undermines its purpose?

The driving force behind this reversal is the foreign policy of the current US administration. Having returned to the Casa Blanca, the leadership has prioritized a relationship with Rusia over traditional European partners. This pivot is not subtle; it is described as a defining feature of the last 11 months. The Consejo de Relaciones Exteriores notes that this strategy has been 'acreditada' (validated) by the administration's actions.

Analysts are scrambling to define this new approach. Michael Kimmage explores the 'Trump Power Paradox' and questions what kind of world order the current National Security Strategy seeks. Meanwhile, Fareed Zakaria argues that the doctrine is effectively a reduction of American influence, summarized as 'Make America Small Again.' This represents a significant departure from the interventionist policies that characterized the late 20th and early 21st centuries.

The most critical casualty of this diplomatic shift is the credibility of Article 5 of the Tratado Atlántico. This article, which stipulates that an attack on one member is an attack on all, has been the cornerstone of NATO deterrence. However, experts now argue that it has become little more than an 'empty declaration.' The hostility from the US toward Europe casts doubt on whether Washington would actually intervene if a European nation were attacked.

This erosion of trust has led to a fracturing of the Western bloc. Jaroslaw Kuisza writes about the 'rise of two wests,' suggesting that the democratic model itself is threatened by this internal division. The Alianza Atlántica may survive in administrative terms, but its strategic deterrent capability is being questioned in real-time by the very nations that built it.

The events of 2025 suggest that the post-World War II order is undergoing a fundamental transformation. The United States is no longer the guarantor of European security in the way it once was. Instead, a new era of transactional politics and regional realignment is taking hold. The Atlantic Alliance faces an existential crisis that cannot be solved by pleasantries or diplomatic niceties.

As the year closes, the world watches to see if this reversal is temporary or permanent. With the Trump administration firmly entrenched and its foreign policy doctrine clearly articulated, the likelihood of a return to the status quo ante appears slim. The 'two Wests' described by analysts may become a permanent feature of the 21st century, fundamentally altering the global balance of power.