Most Russians Expect War With Ukraine to End in 2026

Recent polling data suggests a shift in public sentiment within Russia, with a majority of citizens anticipating a conclusion to the conflict with Ukraine in 2026. This optimism is reported as the nation's economy, previously bolstered by wartime spending, begins to show signs of cooling.

The state-owned Russian Public Opinion Research Center conducted a survey in mid-December, finding that 55% of respondents believe the military operation is nearing its end. Simultaneously, economic indicators reveal a deceleration in industrial output and corporate profits. During a televised phone-in event, President Vladimir Putin addressed these economic shifts and fielded complaints from citizens regarding the cost of living.

A survey released Wednesday by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center indicates that the majority of Russians expect the war with Ukraine to conclude in 2026. The poll, which surveyed 1,600 Russians aged 18 and above, found that 55% believe what Moscow calls its "special military operation" is nearing its end.

The poll was conducted in mid-December, marking a shift from previous years. In past annual polls, the organization did not provide data regarding the share of Russians expecting the war to end. Assessing public sentiment on sensitive subjects in Russia is often challenging due to the country's tightly controlled public discourse.

Mikhail Mamonov, the deputy head of the Russian Public Opinion Research Center, presented the results at a roundtable discussion. He attributed the sentiment to the potential resolution of the conflict.

"The main reason for optimism is the possible completion of the special military operation and the achievement of the stated objectives, in line with the national interests outlined by the president."

The optimism regarding the conflict's duration comes as Russia's economic boom, driven largely by wartime spending and subsidies, begins to cool. Official statistics agency Rosstat reported on Wednesday that industrial output fell by 0.7% in November compared to the previous year. This follows a 3.1% increase recorded in October.

Analysts had anticipated a 1.2% increase in output, making the actual figures a notable deviation. The economic pressures are further evidenced by the profits of Russian companies, which declined nearly 10% to 21.6 trillion rubles (approximately $273.4 billion) from January through October.

Several factors are contributing to this economic cooling:

• Moderating inflation levels
• Weaker energy revenues
• A strong ruble
• Tight credit conditions

These elements have weighed on consumer demand and real incomes, effectively squeezing private-sector activity.

During a highly choreographed phone-in event known as the "Direct Line," President Vladimir Putin took questions from ordinary citizens and journalists regarding the war and the economy. The event took place on a Friday, shortly before the release of the economic data.

Putin acknowledged a sharp slowdown in economic growth, noting that it had dropped to 1% this year from 4.3% in 2024. He attributed this deceleration to government measures aimed at improving inflation. While the discussion was dominated by the situation in Ukraine, the broadcast highlighted flashes of public frustration.

Text messages displayed on a large screen in the hall included complaints about internet outages, poor water quality, and the rising cost of living. These complaints serve as a reminder of how economic pressures are directly affecting the daily lives of Russians.

Beyond the specific expectations regarding the timeline of the conflict, broader concerns remain. A separate, independent poll conducted by the Levada Center highlights the primary worries of the population.

The Levada Center survey, conducted between November 18 and 27 and published on December 16, involved 1,608 Russians aged 18 and above. The results showed that the economy and the war with Ukraine remain the top concerns for the Russian public.

As the year progresses, the intersection of geopolitical events and domestic economic policy continues to shape the landscape for the Russian populace.