Iran's Environmental Crises Fuel Unprecedented Protests

Anti-government protests sweeping across Iran, from major cities to rural towns, are fueled by anger over economic collapse and political repression. But beneath the headlines of currency devaluations and street clashes lies a deeper, more permanent driver of dissent: ecological calamity.

Decades of ignoring scientists, persecuting activists and greenlighting corrupt development schemes have triggered a water crisis so severe that President Masoud Pezeshkian warned in November that Tehran's residents may eventually have to evacuate the capital city, which is sinking as dried-up aquifers give way.

The devastation extends far beyond Tehran. Lake Urmia, once one of the world's largest salt lakes, has shriveled to less than 10 percent of its volume, while the iconic Zayandeh River has sat dry for years. Wildfires have ravaged the parched Hyrcanian forests, a UNESCO World Heritage site.

In the oil-rich Khuzestan province, home to Iran's Arab minority, state-led water diversion has devastated the local economy and inflamed ethnic grievances. The human cost is staggering:

• Crumbling infrastructure and overdrawn aquifers leave farmers unable to plant crops
• Cities forced to ration water supplies for drinking, bathing, and cleaning
• Tens of thousands die prematurely each year from severe air and water pollution
• Water shortages and power outages have shuttered businesses nationwide

Environmental issues tie "into all the other grievances that activists and citizens and protesters have over economic and political issues," said Eric Lob, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Middle East Program and an associate professor at Florida International University. "It's all interconnected."

Water stress has become a source of political contention and a tool of political control. Ethnic minority regions on Iran's periphery have seen their water supply diverted to central provinces dominated by the Persian majority, creating environmental "winners and losers" and deepening resentment.

"These aren't separate from the current uprising. They're precursors. Economic and environmental grievances are inseparable when your tap runs dry and your crops die."

Gregg Roman, executive director of the Middle East Forum, pointed to recent protests over water access in the Sistan and Baluchestan province, where demonstrators in 2023 marched with signs reading "Sistan is thirsty for water, Sistan is thirsty for attention."

Lob traced a direct line between today's uprising and the regime's historical environmental failures. Since the 1979 revolution, the government has used rural development projects to increase political legitimacy and popular support—a process that gave rise to a "water mafia" within the military establishment and the construction of hundreds of dams across the country.

Organizations close to the government and military were able to get contracts for these projects. The goal was power and profit-seeking over environmental protection and sustainability. This pattern of prioritizing political control and economic interests over ecological sustainability has created a cascade of environmental disasters.

Student groups have also identified Iran's ecological emergencies as driving unrest. In a December statement, activists declared: "Today, crises have piled up: poverty, inequality, class oppression, gender oppression, pressure on nations, water, and environmental crises. All are direct products of a corrupt and worn-out system."

The current protests, which erupted in late December, are the largest since 2022-2023. The government has responded with a communication blackout, cutting off internet access nationwide, and violent crackdowns. Human rights organizations estimate thousands have been killed, and even more arrested.

Iran has a history of executing protestors, often by public hanging. The environmental crisis has created a situation where ordinary Iranians are "worried about whether they'll have enough water for drinking, bathing, and cleaning," according to experts monitoring the situation.

The convergence of environmental disaster with economic collapse and political repression has created a perfect storm of discontent. What began as protests over water access and environmental degradation has evolved into a broader challenge to the regime's legitimacy and its ability to govern effectively.

The environmental crisis in Iran represents a fundamental challenge to the regime's survival. Unlike economic sanctions or external pressures that the government has weathered for decades, ecological collapse directly impacts the daily survival of millions and cannot be easily managed through propaganda or force.

As water shortages intensify and more regions face environmental catastrophe, the pressure on the government to address these issues will only grow. The question remains whether the regime can adapt its policies to address environmental sustainability or whether these crises will ultimately prove too severe for its survival.

The international community watches closely as Iran navigates this multifaceted crisis, where environmental degradation, economic collapse, and political repression have converged to create one of the most significant challenges to the Islamic Republic since its founding.