Bitcoin Price Struggles at $90K as Christmas Trading Nears

The bitcoin price showed volatility on Monday, briefly crossing $90,000 after starting from $88,000 in Asian trading. It peaked during European and U.S. afternoon hours before declining back toward $88,000.

This reflects a recurring pattern of early-day gains fading in U.S. sessions. Futures open interest climbed to $60 billion on venues like Binance, CME, and Bybit, indicating fresh leverage rather than short-covering.

Sustained momentum above $90,000 could break December's sell-off trend, while failure might continue lower highs. Macro factors, including Federal Reserve uncertainty and upcoming economic data, play a key role. A potential Santa Claus rally offers optimism, with bitcoin averaging 7.9% gains in the festive period since 2011.

The bitcoin price rallied from $88,000 during Asian trading hours, crossing above $90,000 in European and U.S. afternoon sessions. This surge proved short-lived, as the price dropped near $88,000 by the close of afternoon trading.

Recent weeks have shown a consistent pattern: bitcoin gains momentum in Asian and European hours, only for those advances to fade upon U.S. investor re-entry. This dynamic has characterized much of December, leading to sharp early-day sell-offs.

A sustained move and hold above $90,000 could signal a shift from this pattern, indicating stronger bullish momentum. Conversely, failure to maintain this level may reinforce the market's tendency toward lower highs and rapid pullbacks.

Data from CoinGlass reveals that bitcoin futures open interest increased toward $60 billion across major venues including Binance, CME, and Bybit. This rise occurred earlier in the day alongside the price rally.

The growth suggests influxes of fresh leveraged positions, beyond mere short-covering. Rising open interest with higher prices does not inherently signal trouble but elevates the stakes for market participants.

If momentum stalls, crowded long positions could unwind quickly, causing steep pullbacks. On the other hand, if the rally persists, leverage may amplify potential upside gains.

• Open interest climbed toward $60 billion.
• Indicates new leveraged entries on key platforms.
• Heightens risks of rapid unwinds or amplified rallies.

Support for the bitcoin price holds near $84,000, a level that has remained resilient in recent weeks. Immediate resistance appears at $91,400, followed by a key threshold at $94,000.

Beyond $94,000, further resistance zones include $98,000 and the range between $101,000 and $108,000. Closing above $108,000 could challenge views that bitcoin's 2025 peak represents a long-term top.

Currently, sellers maintain control near $89,000, about 30% below bitcoin's October all-time high. Investors withdrew nearly $500 million from spot bitcoin ETFs last week, reflecting caution amid uncertainties.

Maintaining support above $84,000 and holding gains over $90,000 during U.S. hours could lay groundwork for a year-end rally.

The U.S. macroeconomic environment continues to influence bitcoin's price trajectory. Uncertainty surrounds the Federal Reserve's policy path, exacerbated by delays in inflation data from a recent government shutdown.

Gabriel Selby, head of research at CF Benchmark, stated that until the Fed receives several months of uninterrupted inflation readings, market participants are unlikely to commit fully to risk assets like bitcoin.

Upcoming indicators include third-quarter GDP figures due tomorrow, forecasted at roughly 3.5% annualized growth, down from the second quarter's 3.8%. Consumer confidence data and weekly jobless claims will offer further labor market insights, potentially affecting risk appetite.

Potential Santa Rally

Historical seasonality provides optimism through the Santa Claus rally, where the S&P 500 often rises in the final five trading days of December and first two of January. Bitcoin's correlation with equities via ETFs could lead to spillover effects.

Bitcoin's performance in this Santa period has varied: strong returns of 33% in 2011 and 46% in 2016, contrasted by declines in other years. Overall, it has averaged a 7.9% gain since 2011. Gold, with a 95% cumulative return over the same period and recent highs above $4,400 per ounce, underscores positive sentiment.

Year-End Price Outlook

The interplay of spot demand, futures leverage, and macroeconomic signals will determine if bitcoin can push toward $94,000 and $101,000 in late 2025. At press time, bitcoin traded at $88,368, with 24-hour volume of $40 billion, a market cap of $1.76 trillion, 19.97 million coins in circulation, and a maximum supply of 21 million.

In conclusion, while short-term struggles persist near $90,000, holding key supports and leveraging seasonal tailwinds could propel bitcoin toward higher levels as Christmas trading unfolds, contingent on broader economic stability.