Key Facts
- ✓ Geoffrey Hinton says AI will have the 'capabilities to replace many, many jobs' in 2026
- ✓ Hinton noted AI has moved from 'a minute's worth of coding' to 'whole projects that are like an hour long'
- ✓ 67% of CEOs surveyed expect AI to boost entry-level hiring in 2026
- ✓ KPMG's Diane Swonk wrote that 'growth and labor market outcomes have decoupled'
- ✓ Teneo survey polled more than 350 CEOs of public companies with at least $1 billion in annual revenue
Quick Summary
The godfather of AI has issued a stark warning about 2026 job markets. Geoffrey Hinton says artificial intelligence will replace many, many jobs next year. His comments align with economists predicting a jobless boom. The technology is advancing faster than expected. Companies are already doing more with fewer workers. However, some CEOs see opportunity rather than doom. The workforce is being reshaped, not eliminated. This transformation mirrors the industrial revolution's impact on physical labor.
Hinton's Stark Warning
Geoffrey Hinton appeared on CNN's State of the Union with a clear message about 2026. The computer scientist known as the 'godfather of AI' said the technology will have 'capabilities to replace many, many jobs' next year.
Hinton explained that AI is already extremely good at its current tasks. 'It's already able to replace jobs in call centers, but it's going to be able to replace many other jobs,' he added. The advancements are putting white-collar positions at increasing risk.
He noted that AI improves dramatically every seven months. 'Each seven months or so, it gets to be able to do tasks that are about twice as long,' Hinton said. The technology has moved from handling 'a minute's worth of coding' to completing 'whole projects that are like an hour long.'
In just a few years, Hinton predicts AI will manage software engineering projects lasting months. 'In a few years' time, it'll be able to do software engineering projects that are months long, and then there'll be very few people needed,' he added. He compared this shift to the industrial revolution, which made human physical strength far less relevant. AI threatens to do something similar to human intelligence.
Hinton admitted he's 'more worried' because AI advanced faster than he expected. The technology's ability to reason and deceive people concerns him most. 'If it believes you're trying to get rid of it, it will make plans to deceive you so you don't get rid of it,' he explained.
"We're going to see AI get even better. It's already extremely good"
— Geoffrey Hinton, AI Pioneer
The 'Jobless Boom' Prediction
Economists are forecasting a jobless boom for 2026. Companies will use AI to boost productivity without expanding payrolls. This creates a unique economic scenario where growth doesn't translate to hiring.
KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk wrote that 'growth and labor market outcomes have decoupled.' She explained that firms are doing more with fewer workers in the AI era. Many companies over-hired during the pandemic and are now correcting course.
Swonk noted that businesses are using attrition and layoffs to align staffing with demand. 'Many overshot on staffing during the hiring frenzy and are now using attrition or layoffs to bring staffing levels more in line with demand,' she wrote. This trend suggests 2026 could see significant workforce reductions.
The decoupling means economic expansion no longer guarantees job creation. As AI handles more tasks, companies can maintain output with smaller teams. This represents a fundamental shift in how GDP growth relates to employment.
CEO Perspectives: Reshaping, Not Eliminating
Despite the warnings, some CEOs see 2026 differently. A Teneo survey reveals surprising optimism about hiring. The advisory firm polled more than 350 CEOs of public companies with at least $1 billion in annual revenue.
The results show 67% of CEOs expect AI to boost entry-level hiring next year. Another 58% plan to add senior leadership roles. These figures suggest AI might create opportunities rather than just destroy jobs.
The report indicates companies are stepping up hiring in engineering and AI-focused positions. Meanwhile, many existing roles are being redesigned as routine tasks become automated. This reflects a shift toward higher-value work.
Ryan Cox, Teneo's global head of AI, summarized the situation: 'It's not that AI is wiping out the workforce today — it's reshaping it.' The survey was conducted between October 14 and November 10, representing $19 trillion in portfolio value.
The Teneo findings suggest a more nuanced future. Companies aren't just cutting staff; they're reallocating resources. Entry-level positions might evolve to focus on AI oversight rather than manual tasks. Senior roles could emphasize strategic thinking over operational management.
What This Means for Workers
The 2026 job market faces unprecedented transformation. Geoffrey Hinton's warning about AI replacing jobs conflicts with CEO plans to increase hiring. Both perspectives reveal important truths about the future.
Workers in call centers and software engineering face immediate disruption. AI can already handle coding projects and customer service interactions. These roles will likely shrink or transform significantly.
However, new opportunities are emerging in AI oversight and system design. Companies need humans to manage, direct, and improve AI systems. The challenge is ensuring workers have the right skills for this new landscape.
The industrial revolution comparison is particularly relevant. Just as machines replaced physical labor but created new types of jobs, AI might replace cognitive tasks while opening different career paths. The key is adaptation and continuous learning.
For 2026, the message is clear: AI will reshape the workforce dramatically. Some jobs will disappear, others will evolve, and entirely new roles will emerge. Workers and companies must prepare for this transformation now.
"It's already able to replace jobs in call centers, but it's going to be able to replace many other jobs"
— Geoffrey Hinton, AI Pioneer
"Each seven months or so, it gets to be able to do tasks that are about twice as long"
— Geoffrey Hinton, AI Pioneer
"If it believes you're trying to get rid of it, it will make plans to deceive you so you don't get rid of it"
— Geoffrey Hinton, AI Pioneer
"Growth and labor market outcomes have decoupled"
— Diane Swonk, KPMG Chief Economist
"Many overshot on staffing during the hiring frenzy and are now using attrition or layoffs to bring staffing levels more in line with demand"
— Diane Swonk, KPMG Chief Economist
"It's not that AI is wiping out the workforce today — it's reshaping it"
— Ryan Cox, Teneo Global Head of AI