Russian Retailers Find Balance in 2026

The Russian retail sector is entering a phase of stabilization in 2026, with new brand openings finding a sustainable rhythm. After years of volatility, the market is projected to see 45 new brands establish a physical presence across the country.

This represents a modest 5% year-on-year increase from 2025, suggesting the market is settling into a new, more deliberate pace. The frantic expansion of previous years has given way to a more strategic approach from both local and international players.

The current climate reflects a mature market adapting to complex economic realities. Retailers are now prioritizing long-term viability over rapid growth, carefully selecting locations and formats that promise stability.

The trajectory of new retail entries reveals a clear cooling trend. While 2026 is expected to bring a slight recovery, the overall volume remains well below the highs of recent years.

In 2024, the market saw an influx of 62 new brands, a period of aggressive expansion. By contrast, 2025 saw that number fall to 43, and the forecast for 2026 sits at 45—a figure that is nearly one-third smaller than the 2024 peak.

This data illustrates a significant shift in market dynamics. The era of rapid, unchecked growth has ended, replaced by a more cautious and competitive environment.

• 2024 Peak: 62 new brands entered the market
• 2025 Slowdown: A sharp decline to 43 new brands
• 2026 Forecast: A slight rebound to 45 new brands

The changing landscape is driven by two primary factors: a challenging economic climate and heightened competition. These forces are reshaping how new retailers approach the Russian market.

The current economic confluence creates uncertainty for businesses considering significant capital investments in physical stores. High operational costs and unpredictable consumer spending make expansion a risky proposition.

Furthermore, the retail space is more crowded than ever. Intense competition from established players leaves little room for newcomers to gain a foothold through traditional means. This pressure is forcing brands to innovate and find alternative paths to consumers.

High competition and the current economic situation are slowing the entry of new retailers into the market.

In response to these challenges, a clear strategic pivot is underway. New brands are increasingly choosing to launch in the online segment rather than committing to expensive physical locations.

This digital-first approach allows brands to test the market, build a customer base, and establish brand recognition with lower initial investment. E-commerce platforms provide a direct line to consumers without the overhead of rent, staffing, and logistics associated with brick-and-mortar stores.

The trend signals a fundamental change in retail strategy. For many new entrants, a physical storefront is no longer the primary goal but rather a potential future milestone, contingent on proven online success.

• Lower startup costs and reduced financial risk
• Broader geographic reach from day one
• Direct access to consumer data and feedback
• Flexibility to adapt quickly to market trends

The forecast for 2026 paints a picture of a retail sector that has learned to adapt. The balance being struck is not one of explosive growth, but of sustainable expansion and strategic positioning.

For the Russian market, this new equilibrium may lead to a more diverse and resilient retail ecosystem. Brands that succeed will be those that master the digital landscape first, using online channels as a foundation for any future physical presence.

The coming year will be a test of this new model. The ability of new retailers to thrive in a competitive, digitally-focused environment will define the next chapter of Russia's retail story.