Key Facts
- ✓ Oil processing at Russian refineries reached a volume of 228.34 million tons in 2025, the lowest level in 15 years.
- ✓ The decline in processing volumes was primarily attributed to unplanned shutdowns and maintenance activities in the second half of the year.
- ✓ Processing volumes saw a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, reflecting the impact of operational disruptions.
- ✓ Industry expectations point toward continued restrained production due to the risk of new refinery stoppages and limited incentives for increasing output.
A Historic Decline
Oil processing at Russian refineries experienced a significant downturn in 2025, reaching a volume of 228.34 million tons. This figure represents the lowest level of activity recorded in the sector over the past 15 years.
The contraction highlights a challenging period for the industry, characterized by operational disruptions and reduced throughput. The decline marks a notable shift from previous years' output levels.
Roots of the Reduction
The primary driver behind the drop in processing volumes was a series of unplanned shutdowns and maintenance activities. These operational interruptions occurred predominantly during the second half of 2025, impacting the sector's ability to maintain steady output.
Consequently, the reduction in crude oil supply directly affected processing capacities. The industry faced difficulties in sustaining production rates due to these unexpected operational pauses.
- Unplanned shutdowns disrupted operations
- Maintenance activities increased in the second half
- Supply constraints limited processing capacity
Quantifying the Impact
The decrease in oil processing is quantified by a 1.7% year-on-year reduction in volumes. This statistical drop underscores the tangible effects of the operational challenges faced throughout the year.
While the percentage may seem modest, the absolute volume of 228.34 million tons represents a substantial shift in the sector's output. The data illustrates a clear downward trend in processing activity compared to the previous year.
Industry Outlook
Looking toward the future, the sector anticipates a continuation of restrained production levels. Industry observers cite the persistent risk of new refinery stoppages as a major concern for maintaining output stability.
Furthermore, there are noted to be weak incentives for increasing refinery loading. This combination of operational risks and limited motivation for expansion suggests that production volumes may remain subdued in the near term.
In the industry, they expect the preservation of restrained production volumes in the face of risks of new refinery stoppages and weak incentives for increasing loading.
Looking Ahead
The 2025 data serves as a critical indicator of the current state of the Russian oil refining sector. The 15-year low in processing volumes signals a period of adjustment and uncertainty for the industry.
As the sector navigates the balance between operational reliability and production targets, the focus will likely remain on managing risks associated with unplanned outages. The path forward will depend on the ability to stabilize operations and address the underlying incentives for production growth.
