Record Mortgage Surge: 800B Rubles in December

The final month of 2025 witnessed an unprecedented rush in the mortgage market, with total issuance volume surpassing 800 billion rubles. This figure represents the highest level ever recorded for the month of December, signaling a significant acceleration in real estate financing.

While the holiday season typically brings a degree of market activity, the scale of this surge was amplified by a specific catalyst. Buyers moved decisively to secure financing before anticipated changes to preferential lending programs, creating a concentrated wave of demand that reshaped the year's closing statistics.

Two primary factors converged to create this record-breaking momentum. The first was the traditional seasonal factor associated with year-end financial planning. The second, and more impactful, was the widespread expectation that conditions for preferential mortgage programs would tighten significantly in the coming year.

This anticipation acted as a powerful incentive for potential homeowners to finalize their applications before the deadline. The rush was not merely about securing a loan, but about locking in favorable terms that might become less accessible.

• Seasonal year-end financial activity
• Anticipation of stricter preferential program terms
• Desire to secure current favorable conditions
• Concentrated demand from motivated buyers

Looking ahead, market participants are forecasting a shift in the dynamics of mortgage issuance. The focus is expected to move from state-supported programs to proprietary bank initiatives. Financial institutions are preparing to launch their own competitive offers to capture market share.

However, this anticipated recovery is not expected to be explosive. The market faces significant headwinds that will likely temper the pace of growth. High borrowing costs and elevated property prices remain substantial barriers to widespread adoption.

Market participants expect its revival, precisely due to banks' own programs.

The balance between supply and demand will be heavily influenced by the cost of capital. While banks may offer creative solutions, the fundamental affordability of housing will continue to be a critical factor for potential borrowers.

Despite the positive momentum from the December surge, the path forward is not without challenges. The high cost of borrowing remains the most significant obstacle to sustained growth in the mortgage sector.

Interest rates for standard market programs continue to sit at elevated levels, limiting the pool of eligible buyers. This financial pressure is compounded by the persistent high cost of real estate itself, which reduces purchasing power even for those who qualify for loans.

• Persistently high interest rates on market programs
• Elevated cost of residential real estate
• Limited impact of seasonal demand on long-term trends
• Need for bank innovation to stimulate activity

The record-breaking performance in December 2025 highlights a market responsive to policy signals and seasonal trends. The 800 billion ruble milestone serves as a testament to the pent-up demand that can be unlocked by favorable conditions.

As the market transitions into the new year, the emphasis will shift from state-led incentives to bank-driven solutions. The future trajectory of mortgage issuance will depend on how effectively financial institutions can navigate the constraints of high rates and property costs while offering products that meet consumer needs.