Iran Protests: Why Current Wave Differs from Past

Current protests in Iran differ significantly from previous movements due to a combination of internal and external factors. The regime faces a severe economic crisis with 40% currency devaluation and uncontrolled inflation, which was triggered by merchants in the Grand Bazaar.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, 86, is physically debilitated without a clear successor, while regional partners like Hezbollah and Hamas are weakened. The protests, sparked by economic issues, quickly shifted to demands for regime change, driven by a youth demographic where 47% of Iranians are under 30.

The government has responded with brutal repression, internet blackouts, and mass arrests. Meanwhile, the US administration is considering military options, cyber warfare, and expanded sanctions, while pressuring other nations with 25% tariffs for doing business with Iran. An analyst suggests the Iranian revolution is ending, though total collapse is not imminent.

The current wave of protests finds a regime significantly more vulnerable than during previous mobilizations. Unlike the protests of 2009 and 2022, the Islamic Republic is grappling with a severe economic crisis and the aftermath of a 12-day war with Israel in June.

At the center of this vulnerability is Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who is 86 years old and described as physically debilitated. Crucially, there is no clear successor to lead the theocratic system, creating uncertainty about the regime's future stability.

Furthermore, the regime's regional network has been compromised. Key allies Hezbollah and Hamas are currently weakened, reducing Iran's strategic depth and ability to project power abroad.

The economic indicators paint a grim picture:

• The rial has lost 40% of its value
• Inflation is uncontrolled
• Austerity reforms by President Masoud Pezeshkian have failed to alleviate poverty

These factors have combined to strip the regime of its traditional leverage over the population.

While the initial response from security forces features familiar tactics—brutal repression, hundreds of deaths, thousands of arrests, and total internet and telephone blockades—the protests themselves have evolved.

The movement was ignited by merchants of the Grand Bazaar, a sector historically loyal to the regime since the 1979 Revolution. However, the focus rapidly shifted from economic grievances and corruption to explicit demands for regime change.

A significant demographic shift is driving this escalation. Approximately 47% of Iranians were born after the 1979 Revolution and are under the age of 30. This younger generation, less connected to the founding ideology of the Islamic Republic, is at the forefront of the demonstrations.

Young protesters are actively invading state buildings and burning photos of the Supreme Leader, signaling a fundamental break with the established order. The government's internet blackout, intended to isolate protesters, is simultaneously inflicting heavy costs on an already struggling economy.

The United States is closely monitoring the situation, with President Trump admitting he is analyzing the events with much seriousness. The administration believes the regime has crossed a red line regarding intervention due to the violence of its repression.

According to reports, the US is preparing a package of options to be presented to the President. These potential measures include:

1. Military attacks
2. Use of cyber weapons
3. Expansion of sanctions
4. Providing online aid to anti-government sources

In a move to increase diplomatic pressure, the administration is imposing 25% tariffs on countries that continue to do business with Iran. This economic lever aims to further isolate the Iranian government.

Analyst Vali Nars, a professor at Johns Hopkins University, notes that while a total collapse of the Islamic Republic is not necessarily imminent, the Iranian revolution is approaching its end. The combination of economic despair, generational gaps, and loss of fear among the populace suggests the regime has little room to maneuver for short-term reforms.