Quick Summary
- 1Russia's maritime oil exports increased by 9% in December 2025 following a slowdown in November.
- 2Despite the monthly gain, total export volumes for the year-end period remained below the highs recorded in September and October.
- 3Analysts forecast a market correction in early 2026 driven by severe weather conditions and the accumulation of oil on tankers at sea.
- 4Rising transportation costs within the shadow fleet are expected to further complicate supply chains in the coming months.
Quick Summary
Maritime shipments of Russian oil experienced a notable rebound at the close of 2025, reversing a slump recorded in November. The recovery, however, has not been sufficient to return export volumes to their previous autumn highs.
As the calendar turns to 2026, market analysts are closely watching a new set of variables that threaten to disrupt this momentum. The outlook suggests a potential contraction in exports driven by a combination of harsh weather patterns and rising logistical costs.
December Rebound
After experiencing a downturn in November, maritime export volumes showed renewed strength to close out the year. Data indicates that the sector managed to achieve a 9% growth rate in December compared to the previous month.
Despite this positive monthly shift, the broader context reveals a complex picture. The total volume of oil leaving Russian ports by sea remains lower than the benchmarks set during the September and October periods of 2025.
- Recovery from the November slump
- 9% increase in December shipments
- Volumes still below autumn 2025 peaks
Headwinds in 2026
Looking toward the first quarter of the new year, the industry is bracing for a market correction. Analysts suggest that the fragile recovery is at risk due to severe environmental factors.
Two primary issues are driving this pessimistic forecast: difficult weather conditions and the physical accumulation of crude on tankers that are currently stranded at sea. These factors are creating a bottleneck that could slow down the flow of exports significantly.
Analysts expect a correction due to complex weather and oil accumulation on sea-going tankers.
Shadow Fleet Costs
A secondary, yet significant, threat to the supply chain involves the shadow fleet. This network of vessels, often used to transport sanctioned oil, is facing rising operational expenses.
The cost of transportation for this raw material is reportedly increasing. If these rates continue to climb, it will add further complications to the already strained logistics of moving Russian oil to global markets.
- Rising freight rates in the shadow sector
- Increased operational expenses for transport
- Potential delays in global supply chains
Looking Ahead
The Russian oil export sector finds itself at a crossroads as 2026 begins. While the year-end surge provided a temporary boost, the underlying structural challenges remain formidable.
Market stability will largely depend on how quickly logistical hurdles, such as weather disruptions and the shadow fleet's cost issues, can be navigated. Stakeholders will be watching closely to see if the December momentum can be sustained or if the predicted correction will take hold.
Frequently Asked Questions
Russian maritime oil exports saw a recovery in December 2025, rising by 9% compared to November. However, these volumes were still lower than the levels recorded in September and October.
Analysts predict a correction in early 2026 due to difficult weather conditions and the accumulation of oil on tankers at sea. Additionally, rising transportation costs in the shadow fleet are expected to complicate shipments.
The shadow fleet plays a crucial role in transporting Russian oil, and an increase in the cost of using these vessels could further disrupt supply chains and make exports more expensive.
