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Disney's Sluggish Stock Threatens Iger's Legacy
Economics

Disney's Sluggish Stock Threatens Iger's Legacy

Business Insider2h ago
3 min read
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Key Facts

  • ✓ Disney's stock is currently trading around $114, marking a significant decline of approximately 43% from its peak of $198.60 in March 2021.
  • ✓ During Bob Iger's first 15-year tenure as CEO, which ended in 2020, Disney's stock surged as he transformed the company through acquisitions of Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilm.
  • ✓ The company's streaming business has stopped bleeding cash, with operating income up 39% year-over-year in the fiscal fourth quarter.
  • ✓ ESPN is modernizing for streaming with a newly enhanced app and big direct-to-consumer ambitions, though sports rights costs have increased dramatically.
  • ✓ Domestic park attendance decreased by 1% in 2025, raising questions about how much pricing power Disney has left in its Experiences division.
  • ✓ Bank of America analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich noted this is Disney's lowest relative valuation in more than 40 years compared to the broader market.

In This Article

  1. Quick Summary
  2. Stock Performance vs. Market
  3. Competitive Landscape
  4. Entertainment Division Challenges
  5. Experiences & Sports Segments
  6. Succession & Future Outlook
  7. Key Takeaways

Quick Summary#

Disney's stock is casting a shadow over CEO Bob Iger as he nears the end of a multi-year comeback run. Despite overseeing several key improvements to Disney's business, the stock remains far below its all-time high.

The company has achieved notable successes: streaming has stopped bleeding cash, a major expansion pipeline for parks and experiences has been mapped out, and ESPN is bolstering its streaming strategy. However, the stock sits about 43% below its 2021 peak, which could leave a dent in Iger's legacy.

Stock Performance vs. Market#

During Iger's first 15-year run as CEO, which ended in 2020, Disney's stock surged as he transformed the company through acquisitions—Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilm—that powered its movies, TV shows, consumer products, and parks. The introduction of the streaming service Disney+ in 2019 set off a growth narrative that saw the stock reach its all-time high of $198.60 in March 2021.

Since then, Disney has fallen well behind the S&P 500. Disney is trading around $114—up about 24% from the start of Iger's second term as CEO. By comparison, the S&P has gained around 75%.

"Disney was the one stock in media that you could compare to everyone else," longtime Bank of America analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich said. "This is the lowest relative valuation it's had in more than 40 years."

"Disney was the one stock in media that you could compare to everyone else."

— Jessica Reif Ehrlich, Bank of America Analyst

Competitive Landscape#

Disney is operating within a complicated environment for media giants during Iger's second run, which is reflected in the varied stock performance of its competitors. Disney has no exact peer, but shares of its biggest rival, the pure-play streamer Netflix, have gained nearly 206% since November 2022, when Iger returned to Disney.

Warner Bros. Discovery—which includes a storied Hollywood studio and HBO—was lagging until takeover interest fueled a stock run, with shares up 165% in that time period. In contrast, shares of NBCUniversal owner Comcast, which is dealing with both a troubled cable business and a sub-scale streamer, have declined about 12%.

Entertainment Division Challenges#

Wall Street analysts describe Disney as comprising three separate but interconnected businesses, each with its own distinct risk profile. The Entertainment division, which spans linear TV networks, streaming services, and studios, is the most complex piece.

Revenue from Disney's traditional TV business continues to decline as viewers shift away from the medium. In Disney's fiscal fourth quarter ending September 27, linear operating income fell 21% year over year. The streaming business has been a bright spot, with operating income up 39% year over year in the fourth quarter. However, skeptics are concerned about streaming's ability to replace linear TV's decline and point out that growth is increasingly coming from outside the US, where people are often more price-sensitive.

The streaming wars could also get tougher for Disney moving forward. Netflix and Paramount Skydance are in a bidding war over Warner Bros. Discovery, and whichever combination emerges will create a larger rival that could put pressure on Disney. Then there's Disney's studio business: hit-driven and expensive. Wall Street was looking for Iger to work his magic on the movie business, and the films were "horrific" in Disney's 2025 fiscal year, Ehrlich said. The company blamed a decline in studio revenue on comparisons to the prior year's "Deadpool & Wolverine" and "Inside Out 2." Things have been looking up, though, with the blockbuster performance of "Zootopia 2" at the box office.

Experiences & Sports Segments#

The Experiences division encompasses theme parks and cruise ships, and has become a top driver of profit for Disney. The division's recent strength has relied heavily on price increases rather than a bump in attendance. That raises a key question: How much pricing power does Disney have left? In 2025, domestic park attendance decreased 1%, according to Disney's annual report.

Disney has also faced concerns about competition in Florida from Comcast's recently opened Epic Universe, and about the delayed debut of Disney Adventure in Singapore, now scheduled for March. Disney Experiences chair Josh D'Amaro is considered a front-runner for the CEO job.

The Sports segment is the smallest of Disney's business by revenue, but it has a clear growth story. ESPN is modernizing for streaming with a newly enhanced app and big direct-to-consumer ambitions. That said, the cost of sports rights is increasing, and competition is intensifying—not only from traditional rivals like Fox, but also from deep-pocketed tech companies such as YouTube and Amazon. Disney's sports spending was a topic on its latest earnings call after it paid more than a 73% increase for NBA rights in its latest deal, which kicked off with the 2025-2026 season.

Succession & Future Outlook#

Wall Street sees no quick fix for Disney's stock. Analysts want proof of steady, repeatable earnings growth, whether from a stronger film slate, improved streaming profitability, or an expected lift from the cruise business in late 2026. The stock price matters in ways that affect Disney operationally. Equity is critical to retaining top executives, and stagnant shares can dull the appeal of stock-based pay.

This could complicate the job of Disney's next CEO. Disney's CEO succession has become a favorite parlor game, with chatter centering on Experiences chief Josh D'Amaro and Disney Entertainment co-chair Dana Walden. Regardless of who is chosen, investors are hoping for steady leadership over reinvention.

"Typically, CEOs will try very hard to exit on a high note," said Laurent Yoon, US media and telecom analyst at Bernstein. "For Iger, it's certainly not good. It's going to be difficult to get stock in a good direction, at least near term."

Key Takeaways#

The stock's performance represents a significant challenge to Iger's legacy, despite tangible business improvements across streaming, parks, and sports. Investors remain frustrated but hopeful for a rebound, with most believing the fundamentals are still strong.

As Iger prepares to hand over the reins, the next CEO will face the dual challenge of maintaining operational momentum while convincing Wall Street that Disney's growth story is far from over. The path forward will require proving steady earnings growth across all three business segments.

"This is the lowest relative valuation it's had in more than 40 years."

— Jessica Reif Ehrlich, Bank of America Analyst

"Typically, CEOs will try very hard to exit on a high note. For Iger, it's certainly not good. It's going to be difficult to get stock in a good direction, at least near term."

— Laurent Yoon, US Media and Telecom Analyst at Bernstein

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