China's Population Decline Accelerates: A Demographic Shift

China's population has entered a period of sustained decline, with the country's demographic challenges intensifying in 2025. According to new data, the nation's population fell for the fourth consecutive year, dropping by 3.39 million people to 1.405 billion.

This accelerating contraction marks a significant turning point for the world's most populous nation. The decline is driven by a record-low birth rate and a rising death rate, creating a demographic shift that could reshape China's economic future and its role in the global economy.

The latest figures from China's National Bureau of Statistics paint a stark picture of the country's demographic trajectory. In 2025, the birth rate hit its lowest level on record since the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949, at just 5.63 births per 1,000 people.

Conversely, the death rate climbed to 8.04 per 1,000 people. This combination resulted in a natural population decrease. The number of babies born in the country dropped to 7.92 million, a significant fall from 9.54 million in 2024.

The trend is not new, but it is gaining momentum. Mainland China's population first began shrinking in 2022, when it declined by 850,000 people. That year marked the first population decline since the early 1960s, following a major famine during Mao Zedong's failed Great Leap Forward.

A shrinking and aging population poses serious long-term risks for China's economy. The consequences could include a much smaller workforce, weaker demand for goods and services like housing, and mounting pressure on pension and healthcare systems.

These domestic challenges have global ramifications. The world economy has long relied on China's booming productivity and economic growth. A smaller working-age population in China could slow this engine of global growth.

Despite these demographic headwinds, China's economy reported 5% growth last year, meeting its official target. The country also logged a record trade surplus in 2025, even in the face of tariffs imposed by former U.S. President Donald Trump. However, the nation is simultaneously struggling with soaring unemployment among young people and an ongoing housing oversupply that has tanked property values, hurting consumer spending and slowing investment.

China's demographic challenges have unfolded faster than the government once anticipated. In response, authorities have progressively loosened family planning restrictions over the past decade.

The government first dropped the one-child policy to allow two children per family. Five years later, it expanded this to a three-child policy. More recently, the state has raced to lift the fertility rate through a combination of measures:

• Offering financial incentives to parents
• Tightening access to abortions
• Imposing new taxes on contraceptives, including birth control and condoms

Despite these concerted efforts, there is little evidence that the policies have been successful in lifting birth rates. The continued decline suggests that the measures have not been enough to counter the underlying social and economic factors influencing family planning decisions.

While China's situation is serious, it is far from unique. Birth rates are falling in countries around the world, particularly in higher-income nations, including the United States.

According to a report by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, fertility rates below the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman are "becoming the global norm." This has sparked similar economic concerns about a shrinking workforce and a growing elderly population in many developed countries.

The United Nations predicted in 2024 that China's population could fall as low as 663 million—less than half its current population—by 2100, if birth rates continue to decline and immigration stays low. In contrast, the U.S. has a slightly rosier population forecast, as it is set to grow slightly due to immigration.

China's demographic decline is no longer a distant possibility but a present reality with accelerating momentum. The record-low birth rates and sustained population drop in 2025 signal a fundamental shift that will test the resilience of the nation's economic and social systems.

The path forward will require navigating the complex interplay of an aging populace, a shrinking workforce, and the need for sustained economic growth. As China confronts these challenges, its experience will offer critical lessons for other nations facing similar demographic futures.