Bitcoin Surges in Iran Amid Protests and Rial Collapse

Iran's cryptocurrency ecosystem experienced explosive growth throughout 2025, with Bitcoin emerging as a critical financial tool amid escalating political instability and economic collapse. A new analysis of blockchain data reveals that the country's crypto economy processed more than $7.78 billion in value last year, with activity levels accelerating significantly compared to 2024.

The data shows a clear correlation between major political shocks, regional conflict, and domestic unrest, making blockchain activity a real-time indicator of instability within the nation. As the Iranian rial continues its precipitous decline, both ordinary citizens and state-linked entities are increasingly turning to digital assets for protection and strategic advantage.

The most striking trend identified in the analysis is the surge in Bitcoin withdrawals to personal wallets during periods of mass protest in late 2025 and early 2026. By comparing activity before demonstrations began with the period leading up to Iran’s nationwide internet blackout on January 8, analysts observed sharp increases in both transaction volumes and transfers from Iranian exchanges to self-custodied wallets.

This behavior suggests Iranians are using Bitcoin as a flight to safety amid accelerating currency collapse and political uncertainty. The Iranian rial has lost roughly 90% of its value since 2018, with inflation running between 40% and 50%.

In this environment, Bitcoin’s censorship resistance and portability offer a rare form of financial optionality—especially during protests, capital controls, or the risk of needing to flee the country. This pattern mirrors Bitcoin adoption during crises elsewhere, where citizens turn to self-custody when trust in state-controlled financial systems breaks down.

Bitcoin’s permissionless design cuts both ways—serving as a lifeline for civilians facing political instability while also enabling state and paramilitary actors.

The report demonstrates pronounced spikes in Iranian crypto activity following major geopolitical and domestic events. One notable surge occurred after the January 2024 Kerman bombings, which killed nearly 100 people at a memorial for IRGC-Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani.

Further increases in activity were recorded after Iran’s October 2024 missile strikes against Israel, following the assassinations of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. Activity also spiked during the 12-day war in June 2025, which included U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian military infrastructure.

Additional disruptions that correlated with increased crypto movement included cyberattacks on Iran’s largest crypto exchange, Nobitex, and operational disruptions at Bank Sepah, a key IRGC-linked financial institution. These events collectively highlight how blockchain data serves as a barometer for real-time instability.

While Bitcoin has become a lifeline for many civilians, the analysis warns that Iran’s crypto ecosystem is increasingly dominated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Addresses linked to IRGC-affiliated networks accounted for approximately 50% of all crypto value received in Iran in Q4 2025, a share that has steadily grown over time.

IRGC-linked wallets received more than $3 billion on-chain in 2025, up from over $2 billion in 2024. Chainalysis noted that this figure represents a lower-bound estimate, based only on wallets publicly identified through sanctions designations by the U.S. Treasury’s OFAC and Israel’s National Bureau for Counter Terror Financing.

The true scale is likely larger, given the use of shell companies, facilitators, and undisclosed wallets. These networks span multiple countries and are used to move illicit oil revenues, launder funds, evade sanctions, and finance Iran’s regional proxy groups.

• Moving illicit oil revenues across borders
• Laundering funds through complex networks
• Evading international financial sanctions
• Financing regional proxy groups

The analysis concludes that crypto, particularly Bitcoin, plays a somewhat dual role in Iran. It functions simultaneously as a financial escape valve for citizens and a sanctions-evasion tool for the state and its security apparatus.

As Iran faces mounting internal dissent, economic dysfunction, and external pressure, on-chain data shows Bitcoin increasingly being used outside government control, especially during moments of crisis. These findings underscore how Bitcoin’s neutral infrastructure serves different actors depending on their needs and circumstances.

The cryptocurrency’s permissionless nature means it cannot distinguish between a citizen protecting their savings from hyperinflation and a state entity attempting to bypass international restrictions. This neutrality reinforces Bitcoin’s utility as a financial tool in environments where traditional banking systems are compromised or distrusted.

The data from 2025 paints a complex picture of cryptocurrency adoption in Iran, driven by necessity rather than speculation. With the rial’s value collapsing and political instability showing no signs of abating, the reliance on Bitcoin and other digital assets appears likely to continue growing.

For ordinary Iranians, Bitcoin offers a rare form of financial sovereignty in an environment of capital controls and currency devaluation. For state-linked entities, it provides a mechanism to navigate international sanctions and move value across borders.

The situation highlights the evolving role of cryptocurrency in global geopolitics, where digital assets are increasingly becoming tools of both individual empowerment and state strategy. As the landscape continues to shift, blockchain data will remain a critical indicator of economic and political health within the nation.